Will 2026 bring strong auroras? What the sun's recent activity tells us

Activity on the sun is not constant; it varies along a cycle of about 11 years. The peak of this solar cycle — called solar maximum — is when sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most frequent. At the bottom of the cycle, called solar minimum, these phenomena may be absent for months at a time.

We are currently midway through Solar Cycle 25, the 25th solar cycle since the naming convention began back with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. Solar Cycle 25 officially began at the last solar minimum in December 2019.

Over the past few years, activity on the sun has been high — something millions around the world have experienced firsthand during the several displays of low-latitude auroras throughout 2024 and 2025. Although it is valid to consider the recent years of heightened solar activity to be the general solar maximum period, solar maximum itself is defined by the individual month in which the 13-month smoothed sunspot number reached its peak.

Although we can't guarantee that sunspot numbers won't surge again, it is very likely that the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 25 occurred back in October 2024. This puts all of 2025 into the declining phase of the current solar cycle — a trend that will almost certainly continue through 2026. This means that in 2026, we will see fewer sunspots, solar flares and CMEs, but it doesn't mean our chances for strong auroras are over.

Comparing solar flares and geomagnetic storms

As of Dec. 10, 2025, the sun had produced 19 X-class solar flares this calendar year, with more likely before the year is up. However, only four of these solar flares were over a threshold of X2.0, with the strongest event reaching an X5.1-class flare on Nov. 11, 2025. In comparison, 2024 saw over 50 X-class solar flares, with 20 at or above the X2.0 level. In 2024, there were also five solar flares stronger than the largest solar flare of 2025 (at the time this was written), with the largest reaching an X9 level — the strongest Earth-facing solar flare of the solar cycle so far.

Strong solar flares routinely produce CMEs — eruptions of plasma from the sun's atmosphere. Solar flares and CMEs can happen independently, but the strong CMEs typically originate from X-class solar flares. If a CME is directed at Earth, it will impact Earth's magnetic field upon arrival and trigger a geomagnetic storm.

Geomagnetic storms are what produce the northern and southern lights at lower latitudes than usual. They are ranked on a scale of G1 to G5. 2025 saw the third-strongest geomagnetic storm of the solar cycle so far, reaching a G4 (severe) level on Nov. 11. In 2024, we saw two stronger geomagnetic storms, a G5 (extreme) and G4 (severe) in May and October 2024, respectively. For each of these events, widespread auroras were seen across the world. So can we expect this activity to continue?

Strong flares remain likely

Although we are now in the declining phase of the solar cycle, it doesn't mean our chances for strong flares or geomagnetic storms are over. Although solar flares and CMEs will become less frequent in the coming years, strong individual events will still occur. Historically, the strongest events on the sun typically happen during the cycle's declining phase, and sometimes even years after solar maximum.

Let's take, for example, solar flares in solar cycles 23 and 24. Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2001, was a strong solar cycle — with far higher sunspot numbers and stronger solar flares than Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 23 had 10 flares over the X10.0-class level, with four in 2003, two in 2005 and one in 2006 — years after solar maximum in 2001.

The largest of these flares, which occurred in 2003, is estimated to have reached the X40-class level (but, because it exceeded the sensitivity of detectors at the time, it is difficult to say for sure). Solar activity surrounding this strongest flare led to back-to-back G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms around Halloween 2003, bringing auroras down to low latitudes during the strongest event in recent decades — two years into the solar cycle's declining phase.

In a similar story, Solar Cycle 24 peaked in 2014, with the two largest flares occurring in September 2017 (an X13.3 and an X11.88), more than three years after solar maximum. These events, however, were not notably Earth-directed, so they did not bring strong aurora displays.

This historical precedent can aid predictions. Although the total number of solar flares will likely decrease through 2026, we will likely continue to see strong solar flares next year. If we are lucky with the timing and eruptive nature of these strong solar flares, then we'll still have good odds of experiencing further strong aurora displays in 2026.