As China gears up for its next major step in the development of a world-class space program, putting a human in space, Western observers see more than just one nation's efforts to push the boundaries of science and exploration.

China hungers to become a world space power, with a program driven by internal Chinese politics, pride, prestige, and a healthy dose of military bravado. Like its development as a market economy, China wants to call its own shots in space and is striving to build an independent human spaceflight capability.

Yet even before the first Chinese astronauts ascend into orbit, the country's space officials claim a space station, even a reach for the Moon, are part of the nation's long-term program.

China's budding space program is analogous to what the United States and the Soviet Union did in the 1960s, said Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor in the Department of Transnational Studies at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii. "This is their 'Apollo redux,'" she told SPACE.com, noting that her opinions are personal and not those of the U.S. government.

Steps forward in space by China, particularly flights of their soon-to-be-piloted Shenzhou spacecraft, tend to stir up a flurry of positive press coverage, Johnson-Freese points out. "China's global esteem as a 'player' goes up in the rarified high-tech world in which the U.S. clearly dominates. Domestically, a sense of unifying national pride is generated," she said.

Johnson-Freese said that China becoming the third nation in the world able to loft people into orbit -- behind Russia and the United States -- is a win-win for the Chinese in terms of both prestige and capability. In the process, she said, China leaves Japan and European countries behind to eat rocket exhaust.

Charles Vick, chief of the Space Policy Division of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C. senses a strategic threat coming from China's military-run space program. Also, the Chinese authoritarian regime is trying to legitimize themselves to the masses, he said.

"The entire manned program is aimed at Earth orbital flight with primarily military objectives," Vick said. Talk about manned lunar and planetary projects "is more camouflage to real reality," he said.

"They have officially stated that a permanent manned space station is their primary goal that is approved," Vick emphasized. While some years down the road, he said a space station would undergo several phases leading to a more permanent Earth orbiting platform, "provided the funds are there."

"Costing the Chinese science fiction command economy is totally unrealistic, especially out into the future," Vick said.

A cautionary flag raised by Vick centers on China's microsatellite program, an effort that potentially could double as anti-satellite weaponry.

Shenzhou spacecraft can be outfitted with piggyback "nanosatellites", deployed in orbit from the larger vehicle. Chinese space officials say these small craft are built to handle telecommunications duties.

China Watch

China's fastidious testing program to clear Shenzhou for human passengers is shown by the vehicle's flight log to date: -- The first Shenzhou mission took place in November 1999. Rocketed spaceward courtesy of a Long March booster, the craft circuited Earth 14 times, then parachuted into Inner Mongolia; -- Shenzhou 2 flew in January 2001 on a more aggressive mission. The multi-module space vehicle performed a nearly 7-day, 108-orbit flight. It ejected a return capsule carrying biological specimens that touched down in Inner Mongolia. Left behind in space was an orbital module that ground controllers put through an extensive set of maneuvers.

-- The automated Shenzhou 3 spacecraft was rocketed into orbit last March. Following a week of flight, the vehicle's return module crammed with mannequins parachuted to Earth on April 1. Once again, the spacecraft's orbital module remained in orbit. There is speculation this still-in-orbit hardware might become a rendezvous target for an unpiloted Shenzhou 4 mission in a few months time.

-- Further hearsay is on the upswing that Shenzhou 5 may carry a two or three-person Chinese crew, perhaps by year's end. If not then, 2003 is likely the year that China enters the elite club of countries capable of independently hurling people into Earth orbit.

China's overall proficiency in space was strengthened by the Shenzhou 3 flight of a few months ago, said Dean Cheng, Research Analyst with Project Asia at The CNA Corporation in Washington, D.C.

Work is continuing apace on a heavy-lift booster, Cheng said, as well as maneuvering and telemetry-related technologies. China is beefing up mission control and global monitoring skills too. A host of related spin-offs are being realized due to Chinese work on fashioning a human space launch capacity, within the areas of miniaturization, materials, and the life sciences, he said.

Contrasted to America's first space travel corps, the Chinese counterparts to the U.S. "Mercury 7" are reportedly 14 in number. Out of this group, an even dozen candidates are apparently undergoing evaluation, from which two to three individuals are destined for a Shenzhou ride into orbit and back down to terra firma.

It's not clear where these "yuhangyuan", or astronauts, came from, Cheng said. Finding out what individuals were picked and from where may help pin down how the Chinese manned space program fits within the military realm, and whether it is affiliated with any particular branch of service, he said.

Putting humans atop rockets is always costly.

Cheng said that, presumably, other space projects would suffer as limited resources are increasingly given to a humans-in-space program. That gives rise to how China will prioritize its space exploration agenda. The proverbial human versus automated spacecraft battle lines are surely to be drawn, he said.

Marching orders to work on lunar technology are spelled out in China's Tenth Five-Year Plan (2001-2005), Cheng said. The so-called 863 program outlines key technology areas that receive massive state support. That suggests technology for Moon exploration is a national priority, he said.

"Given this national-level priority, and the level of technology already exhibited, the Chinese approach does not appear outlandish, nor even necessarily excessively optimistic," Cheng believes. Much of the fundamental theoretical work has already been accomplished. Lessons learned are easy pickings thanks to the highly publicized "space race" between the United States and the Soviet Union of decades past, he told SPACE.com.

"The idea of a Chinese manned lunar mission, therefore, moves from the exorbitant to the merely expensive," Cheng said.

One unknown factor is China's stance on space law and private investment on the Moon. Does it believe that the Moon constitutes a potential source of financial return on its investment? Or is it primarily interested in scientific and prestige aspects?

"The answer to this could have important implications for lunar development," Cheng said. "Particularly, if the U.S. were to reinvigorate its space program. But even more, if private corporations were to take the lead in such an effort," the China space analyst said.