How long will the ISS operate with a skeleton crew? SpaceX’s Crew-12 astronaut mission delayed to Feb. 12

a white and black rocket with NASA markings on it stands poised on a launch pad awaiting its day to launch

Backdropped by a faint moon and bright blue sky, SpaceX's Crew Dragon "Freedom" is mounted atop a Falcon 9 rocket poised to launch four astronauts to the International Space Station on the Crew-12 mission from Space Launch Complex-40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. (Image credit: SpaceX)

NASA and SpaceX are ready to send a new crew to the International Space Station (ISS) as soon as this week, pending the weather.

On Monday (Feb. 9), mission managers adjusted their target date for the Crew-12 launch by at least a day due to a forecast of poor weather conditions on Wednesday (Feb. 11). A launch on Thursday (Feb. 12), if cleared, would be at 5:38 a.m. EDT (1038 GMT) from Space Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

Backdropped by the sunrise, a white and black rocket stands poised on its launch pad — A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket topped with the Crew Dragon capsule "Freedom" stands poised on Space Launch Complex-40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. (Image credit: SpaceX)

"When we did that, we could see high winds along a lot of that track, up to 24 to 28 knots [27.6 to 32.2 mph], especially in what we would consider our higher-risk areas, the staging area," Steve Stich, NASA's Commercial Crew Program manager, said Monday during a press briefing at the agency's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), which is next door to the Space Force station. "There's a low-pressure system that's moving in and setting over that staging area, and it's driving those winds up."

The forecast for Thursday, while slightly better, will be reassessed on Tuesday (Feb. 10), so the launch date could change again, said Stich.

The teams are working only one technical issue, a problem communicating between the Crew Dragon capsule "Freedom" and launch support team members.

"Otherwise, I would say the vehicles are ready, the crew's ready, the ground systems are ready, and we just have to watch the weather," Stich said. "We'll go ahead and launch when we're ready."

Crew-12 will bring the ISS back up to its normal complement of seven astronauts. The orbiting lab has been operating with a skeleton crew of three since mid-January, when the Crew-11 mission departed a month early in the first-ever medical evacuation from the ISS.

A busy range

Possibly further complicating matters are the other launches and tests pending at the Cape.

On Kennedy's launch pad 39B, NASA engineers are continuing to troubleshoot the hydrogen leak and other issues seen during a "wet dress rehearsal" (WDR) for the Space Launch System rocket and Artemis 2 moon mission. The program is working towards conducting another WDR before setting a new Artemis 2 launch date in early March.

"We don't see conflicts this week, but we continue to talk to them all the time," said Stich. "They've made progress at changing out a few seals, and they're doing some testing on those seals."

More pressing is United Launch Alliance's next launch of its Vulcan rocket on a mission for the Space Force. That launch, from Space Launch Complex-41 (SLC-41) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, is slated for Thursday at 3:20 a.m. EDT (0820 GMT).

"If the [abort] weather is not looking very favorable [for Dragon], we would potentially give up the 12th to allow them to go fly," Stich said.

an access arm extends from a launch support tower providing a walkway and access bridge to a space capsule — A crew access arm, like the one seen here supporting Crew-12's Dragon spacecraft "Freedom" at Space Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, is being removed from he historic Launch Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. (Image credit: SpaceX)

Bearing down

Meanwhile, at Kennedy's launch pad 39A, SpaceX is proceeding with removing and lowering to the ground the access arm that enabled the site to support crewed Falcon 9 missions. Crew-12 is only the second human spaceflight to launch from SLC-41.

"We're going to do some maintenance on some bearings that support the crew arm," said Bill Gerstenmaier, SpaceX's vice president for build and flight reliability, in response to a question from Space.com. "The arm physically has to come down to get to the bearings. These are the bearings that actually hold the arm to the tower."

"They are unique to 39A; they're very different than they are for the arm that's on SLC-40 and to physically get access to those, the arm needs to be removed. Those bearings have to come out, and they have to be reinstalled," said Gerstenmaier.

After the work is complete, the arm will remain on the ground, but can be reinstalled if NASA has a need for a crewed launch from 39A. Otherwise, SpaceX plans to launch Falcon 9 rockets from the Cape, while reserving the Kennedy pad for Falcon Heavy and future Starship flights.

"We don't need to put the arm back up, because if we get called up for a mission, we will have plenty of time. That's the easy piece, putting it up," Gerstenmaier said.

Robert Pearlman is a space historian, journalist and the founder and editor of collectSPACE.com, a daily news publication and community devoted to space history with a particular focus on how and where space exploration intersects with pop culture. Pearlman is also a contributing writer for Space.com and co-author of "Space Stations: The Art, Science, and Reality of Working in Space” published by Smithsonian Books in 2018.

In 2009, he was inducted into the U.S. Space Camp Hall of Fame in Huntsville, Alabama. In 2021, he was honored by the American Astronautical Society with the Ordway Award for Sustained Excellence in Spaceflight History. In 2023, the National Space Club Florida Committee recognized Pearlman with the Kolcum News and Communications Award for excellence in telling the space story along the Space Coast and throughout the world.

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