One of the best meteor showers of the year peaks at the worst possible time this week

Early each January, the Quadrantid meteor stream provides one of the most intense annual meteor displays, with a brief, sharp maximum that lasts only a few hours.

The meteors of this first shower of the year radiate from the northeast corner of the constellation of Boötes, the Herdsman, so we might expect them to be called the "Boötids." But back in the late-18th century, there was a constellation here called Quadrans Muralis, the "Mural or Wall Quadrant" (an astronomical instrument). It is one of the many constellation names that have fallen into disuse. Thus, the meteors were christened "Quadrantids" and even though the constellation from which these meteors appear to radiate no longer exists, the shower's original moniker continues to this day.

Crumbs of a dead comet?

At peak activity, 60 to 120 Quadrantid meteors per hour can be seen under ideal conditions. However, the influx is sharply peaked: just six hours before and after maximum, these blue meteors appear at only half of their highest rates. This suggests that the stream of particles is relatively narrow — possibly derived fairly recently from a small comet.

In fact, in 2003, astronomer Peter Jenniskens of NASA, found a near-Earth asteroid (2003 EH1), whose orbit closely matches that of the Quadrantid stream. Some astronomers suspect that this asteroid is actually a fragment of an old, "extinct" comet; perhaps the same comet that was recorded by Chinese, Korean, and Japanese observers during the years 1490-91. If so, that comet may have broken apart, with some of its debris becoming the meteoroids that now produce the Quadrantids.

2026: A poor year

Unfortunately, 2026 will not be a good year to look for the "Quads." Chalk it up to poor timing.

First, the peak of this year's shower, according to Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown in the 2026 Observer's Handbook of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, is predicted for 5 p.m. EST on Jan. 3. That places the maximum during daylight hours for much of North America. But even if the peak were to occur at night, there is an even greater problem.

For on that very same day, the moon will turn full.

As a result, throughout the overnight hours of Saturday, Jan. 3, into Sunday, Jan. 4, the sky will be flooded with brilliant moonlight. The moon will remain above the horizon all night, located in the constellation of Gemini the Twins and not far from the planet Jupiter. That moonlight will squelch all but the very brightest of meteors.

Ordinarily, the Quadrantids are best seen just before dawn — around 6 a.m. local time — when the radiant, the point in the sky from which the meteors appear to emanate, is climbing higher into the northeastern sky.

If you do decide to head out to look for meteors, remember to bundle up! It is, after all, wintertime. And if you can't find someone who would care to share the viewing duties with you, a thermos jug of your favorite hot beverage — coffee, tea or cocoa — makes for a fine companion on a cold night.

Two years from now, we could have a winner!

But as bad as it is for the Quadrantids this year, it will be a very different story in 2028.

That year, the peak of the shower is set for 5 a.m. EST on Jan. 4, which especially favors eastern North America. And the moon will be at a much more favorable phase: a fat waxing crescent, which will not be in the predawn sky at all and will thus be of absolutely no hindrance to meteor viewing compared to this year. Given clear skies, the "Quads" could turn out to be one of the best meteor displays of 2028.

Mark your calendars!

Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York's Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, Sky and Telescope and other publications.