"You could say that even if we had the best managers and best engineers in the world, youre in a business where something could cause you to have a tragedy like this," Gehman said. "On the other hand we think we have found issues, practices, and managerial and budgetary kinds of things we believe could have been done better even if we hadnt had the accident."
However, Gehman was less circumspect about the underlying cause of the accident when he spoke last week with a room of Washington space insiders at George Washington University about what the board's conclusion would be.
According to industry sources in attendance, Gehman said Columbias accident was not "not an anomalous event, but a predictable outcome" of the way NASA manages the space shuttle program.
Gehman gave another hint to reporters during the July 11 press briefing, saying the CAIBs final report would shine a rather harsh light on NASA. Asked if the report would contain any news, given the board's commitment to release findings and recommendations as they are finalized, Gehman said, "there may be some news value in the tone of the report."
NASAs human space flight programs are subjected to countless safety reviews, but none in recent memory have had the clout or budget as the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Gehman said that by the time all is said and done -- release of the report has been delayed until the third week in August -- the board will have spent $15 million to $20 million of the $50 million Congress approved in the immediate aftermath of the Columbia accident.
Gehman said the boards budget does not include the personnel and other expenses NASA has incurred in support of the investigation, nor does it include the approximately $300 million that the Federal Emergency Management Agency spent on several months of debris recovery in East Texas and Western Louisiana.
While the board has a broad jurisdiction to investigate the underlying causes of the Columbia accident, its mandate does not extend to the other part of NASAs human space flight program, the International Space Station (ISS). Gehman said Friday that the board has made only a cursory examination of the way safety and mission assurance is handled in the ISS program.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hess, a member of the board, said investigators looked at the space station program for insight into how NASA handles micrometeoroid threat and in the process saw as many differences as similarities between the two programs.
"We looked at safety and mission assurance between ISS and shuttle and found some similarities but also found that they each have their own distinct personalities," Hess said.
Gehman said after the press conference that any management deficiencies the investigation turns up should be corrected throughout the agency, not just the space shuttle program.
"It will apply to the way they do everything," Gehman said. NASA spokesman Al Feinberg indicated that the agencys soul searching wouldnt be limited to just the space shuttle program.
"Obviously we want to hear what the board has to say on the shuttle program" Feinberg said. "If there is something we can pullout of there that can help station in terms of safety we would work that into our program. Just because its not shuttle doesnt mean space station isnt going to be looking at it."
Fridays press conference capped off a week in which investigators proved in a dramatic test stand demonstration the serious damage a chunk of foam can do to a shuttle wing. The test, conducted Monday at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Tex., blew a 16-inch wide hole in the leading edge of a wing section taken from the Space Shuttle Atlantis.
Board member James Hallock, chief of the U.S. Department of Transportations aviation safety division, said Friday that investigators do not believe that Columbias breech was as large as the breech created on the test stand July 7. Hallock said the best analysis suggests a hole 6 inches to 10 inches across. Had the orbiter suffered a 16-inch brief, Hallock said, "Columbia would not have made it to the state of Texas."
On Tuesday, Gehman went to Capital Hill to inform NASAs congressional oversight committees that the board would not meet a July 23 target for completing its report. That date was targeted to give lawmakers a chance to receive the report before breaking for a month long August recess. The board plans to issue at least a couple more interim recommendations before the report is released, but none of them, Gehman said, will be as challenging as the on orbit inspection and repair recommendation the board issued June 27.
The board also released Friday a detailed second-by-second account of Columbias last flight, from launch through re-entry and breakup.
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