NASA could save $3 billion
to $6 billion by dumping its Ares I rocket and flying Orion spacecraft and U.S.
astronauts on upgraded Delta IV Heavy rockets, according to an independent
assessment released by NASA on Tuesday.
But the report also said
that course of action would increase by $1.1 billion to $3.5 billion the cost
to develop NASA's Ares V heavy-lift
launch vehicle.
What's more, NASA estimates
it would cost an additional $14.1 billion to $16.6 billion to finish
development of the Orion crew exploration vehicle if NASA switched to Delta IV
Heavy rockets.
The June 1 Aerospace Corp.
report was released a day ahead of a presidential panel's final public hearing
on the future of the U.S. manned
space flight program. The panel will present options to the White House by
the end of the month.
The report failed to
address a key issue raised by Columbia accident investigators: crew
survivability.
The federally funded
research and development group, which played a key role in developing Air Force
Delta 4 and Atlas 5 rockets in the 1990s, limited the report's scope to
technical feasibility, cost, schedule and impacts to NASA's Project
Constellation and national security space programs.
"Aerospace did not
perform estimates of loss of mission and loss of crew probabilities" for
upgraded Delta
4 Heavy rockets, the report said.
Previous NASA studies
indicate Ares I would be twice as safe.
Columbia investigators said
NASA should give "overriding priority to crew safety, rather than trade
safety against other performance criteria," when designing rockets and
spacecraft to replace the agency's shuttle fleet.
NASA is developing its Ares
I rocket to launch astronauts aboard Orion crew capsules. The Ares V moon
rocket is to launch Altair
moon landers and rocket stages to propel the landers and Orion capsules
from Earth orbit to lunar orbit.
The June 1 report focused
specifically on the implications of replacing the Ares I rocket with Delta IV
Heavy rockets.
Ares V "carrying
costs" of up to $3.5 billion would result from stalling development of
five-segment solid rocket boosters and a second stage engine required for the
Ares I and Ares V.
The huge rise in Orion
costs would be associated with adapting the capsules to fly on Delta IVs and
revising mission design work, environmental assessments and ground operations
plans.
Among other costs:
Maintaining the industrial capability to manufacture solid rocket boosters
between the 2010 retirement of NASA's
shuttle fleet and the development of the Ares V rocket in the latter half
of the next decade.
The Aerospace Corp. said it
had not independently verified NASA's estimates for Orion cost increases or the
underlying assumptions.
The development of a Delta 4
Heavy rocket certified to fly astronauts would take 5.5 to seven years, the
report said.
NASA says the Ares I rocket
and Orion spacecraft is expected to fly its first piloted mission in March
2015, although project officials privately acknowledge that target could slip
to mid-2015.
Orion spacecraft
development would slip about a year, the report said.
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