In August 2001, filmmaker John Carpenter said "Boo!" and unleashed "Ghosts of Mars" on the world. While not one of Carpenter's most revered works, it's still a neat sci-fi horror movie in which Mars has been terraformed – 84% terraformed to be exact – and inhabited by humans. Plus, it has Jason Statham and Ice Cube in it, so it's automatically 99% better than all other movies ever made.
Now, the action takes place at Shining Canyon, a remote mining outpost on Mars that has a gritty wild west/Mad Max-ness vibe; it's cold, harsh, and so so so so soooooo dusty – not exactly a dream home location.
Then there's the whole "scary horde possessed by ancient extraterrestrial evil spirits trying to kill you" thing. But let's remove the spooky elements and put them aside for one second, and really consider the possibility of actually living on Mars. It's been 25 years since the movie was released, so how much closer are we to calling the Red Planet our new home?
Chief Scientist at the Planetary Society, Dr. Bruce Betts, isn't optimistic. "I don't think we're in a position to do global terraforming due to the technology and lack of resources. The papers indicate now you have only a tiny fraction of carbon dioxide, and then there's just the political and economic reality of it. Any method I've ever heard of is really outrageously expensive over time, and you would have to have multi-year, multi-generational support for programs at a high level. You'd have the whole world having opinions on whether you could or should do it. Then there's also the planetary protection agreements that many countries have agreed to. But the lack of carbon dioxide is the showstopper, really." Even in the movie, they're still 10 years away from having air like we do on Earth.
Dr. Mark Gallaway, an astronomer, science pundit, and founder of Starlight Planetarium, also mentions the cost and carbon dioxide issues as major obstacles, as well as two other challenges that may make attempts to live on Mars near impossible. "There have been enclosed habitats we've built on Earth. A number of times external teams have had to go in and break groups up, because there have been fistfights [...] so that's going to be a long-term problem." And that’s probably going to be an extra big problem when people are cooped up at a remote mining outpost.
"The other big problem is we have no idea how human physiology works at 0.38G. The only way we could do 0.38 of a G is to have some kind of spin habitat and have people live there. So, without actually knowing what that surface gravity is going to do to us, it's a bit tricky. We might find that they're on Mars for a year, and when they come back, they can't function anymore."
Recent studies about the state of Mars haven't been too promising either. Betts views Bruce Jakosky and Christopher Edwards' 2018 research paper, where it explicitly states "terraforming Mars is not possible using present-day technology," as the biggest reality check.
"The Jakosky and Edwards paper about CO₂ makes me very negative," Betts says. "There have been thoughts of using exotic technologies, such as nanorods and aerogel, but even with the aerogel, I believe they're talking about using it to create localized domes, and you'd create the interior of that and try to terraform it. It's certainly more plausible than doing the whole planet, but still seems like [there are a lot of implications]. [...] People are coming up with new, nifty technologies, but I just don't see how they can be implemented, even if they did work."
Science fiction tends to depict Mars as a possibility for human occupation, but Gallaway points out another big blow for any terraforming ambitions: "We've made recent discoveries that the soil on Mars is actually quite toxic to life. So the scene in 'The Martian' where Mark Watney grows potatoes? That's just not possible. It means if you're going to colonize Mars, you're going to have to bring all your topsoil, which is a big problem."
In addition to all of this, there are the ethical dilemmas that need to be addressed. Astronomer, teacher, and author Dr. Jeffrey Bennett wrote "Life in the Universe" along with Seth Shostak, Nicholas Schneider, and Meredith MacGregor.
In the book, there's a section that discusses introducing greenhouse gas to the Martian atmosphere in order for humans to walk around without a spacesuit. However, this leads to serious questions about the effects of colonization and whether humans have the right to fundamentally change another planet's atmosphere and potentially wreck it for other possible lifeforms already living there. Remember, "it's their planet… we are the aliens."
For Bennett, he questions whether terraforming Mars is even an option if humans can't get their own house in order: "Given that we can't even seem to keep Earth's climate functioning the way we'd like it to – for example, global warming is making the climate worse for humans and other life – I find it difficult to believe that our present level of knowledge would allow us to turn an inhospitable place like Mars into a livable world. Perhaps this may become possible in the future, but certainly not before we first learn how to take care of our home planet's climate."
Clearly, living on Mars isn't possible at the moment, but "Ghosts of Mars" takes place in the future, so we still have time because who knows what scientific advancements await us? Alas, experts tend to agree that it's unlikely to happen by 2176 at this current rate, though developments could happen: "I think that people will continue researching on the small scale of things you could do, but I don't think we're going to be any closer to terraforming Mars in reality by 2176 than we are now," Betts says. So, I guess you could say we "don’t stand a ghost of a chance."
Gallaway suggests an interesting alternative to terraforming Mars, or any other planet: "From a personal point of view, I actually think we should be looking at space habitats rather than planet-based habitats. Get to what we call an M-type asteroid: [...] Get the platinum group metals out, sell those, then spin the asteroid up, and you can live on it – inside at 1G. I'm a big fan of the late Iain M. Banks and his science fiction, where virtually everybody is living in inhabitable orbital structures, because it's easier to make the environment than it is to change it."
Hmm… Gallaway may have just pitched the perfect sequel. Yeah, "Ghosts of the Asteroid" sounds decent, doesn't it? Just as long as Statham somehow returns and punches everything in sight.
Watch "Ghosts of Mars" on Prime Video or Apple TV.
