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Screaming Meteors: Why the Leonids move so fast.


Norwegian astrophotographer Arne Danielsen captured this spectacular Leonid fireball on November 18, 1999.
Leonids 2002 Special Report
Bright Forecast for 2002 Leonid Meteor Shower in November
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
20 August 2002

Few sky shows in our lifetimes will equal the 2001 Leonid meteor shower

Few sky shows in our lifetimes will come close to matching the breathtaking, easy-to-watch 2001 Leonid meteor shower. Except maybe the 2002 Leonid meteor shower. Another storm is in store for Nov. 19, and the main question is how much of it we will see.

Astronomers say a peak of activity expected over North America could generate more than 40 shooting stars every minute. Europeans will be treated to an even better display. Unfortunately, many of the fainter streaks will be drowned out by a full Moon.

To maximize viewing, some planning is in order. Choosing a favorable location is an important first step. But even if you can't travel and aren't a super-serious skywatcher, observing tips provided to SPACE.com by an expert meteor watcher can help you make most of this year's display.

The Leonids are an annual event caused by comet Tempel-Tuttle, which orbits the Sun every 33.2 years and leaves behind a new trail of debris on each pass. Most of this debris is no larger than a grain of sand, and it vaporizes when it crashes through Earth's atmosphere.

Predicting the shower involves figuring out which streams of debris Earth will pass through each year and how dense they will be -- how much the stuff has spread out over decades and centuries as it wafts through space.

The forecast

Forecasters generally agree that Earth will pass through two primary debris streams in 2002.

The first stream could generate a peak rate of more than 3,000 shooting stars per hour just before dawn over Europe and Africa on Tuesday, Nov. 19.

A second burst is slated to occur near dawn the same day over eastern North America and is forecast to produce around 2,600 meteors per hour. That's 43 per minute or nearly one each second.

Peak rates are typically observed in short, stunning bursts that can last anywhere from 15 to 45 minutes, though they are expressed as hourly rates.

The North American peak will also serve residents of the West Coast and those in the middle, too, but the timing puts the best potential in the East.

Meteor forecast is still in its infancy, however, and estimates for exact timing and especially for the rates could change between now and November. The date is firm, though.

Even if the forecasts are off the mark, the Leonids always provide some sort of shower. The nights and mornings leading up to the peak are sure to provide a handful of shooting stars and even fireballs, bright mini-explosions that tend to take over the sky. And despite the Moon's interference, there is cause for optimism in 2002.

"If you enjoyed them in a good sky last year, don't expect something as good this year, because of the observing conditions," said meteor shower forecaster David Asher of the Armagh Observatory. He adds, though, that "if you missed them, and you've never seen a meteor storm in a dark sky, you can expect an excellent display."

Tactics

Serious meteor watchers begin their Leonid observing in earnest two or three nights prior to the peak, to gauge views and sky conditions and to practice their spotting skills. With a full Moon looming, choosing a good location is crucial.

The Moon will be just approaching its full phase, up all night and setting in the west just before sunrise -- right when the peak activity is expected in eastern North America.

Robert Lunsford, a seasoned meteor watcher with the American Meteor Society, says the bright moonlight will be exacerbated in regions with high humidity.

"Those under hazy skies will be at a distinct disadvantage as the moisture will scatter that much more light," Lunsford explained recently. A trip to the mountains can provide lower-humidity conditions. "For those stuck in humid air, I would suggest using a tree or the east side of their house to block the Moon."

Lunsford also recommends setting out an hour or more before prime time, to practice a bit and to allow your eyes to fully adjust to the darkness.

Mountain climbers

One group of long-time meteor watchers is heading to the mountains of North Carolina, where they plan to use high peaks to block scattered moonlight and improve their view by observing from deep canyon shadows.

Tom Van Flandern, a meteor forecaster who's helping to lead the expedition, told SPACE.com that test observations have shown that during a full Moon, twice as many stars can be seen from their chosen location in the Appalachians compared with other sites. The group will start out at a mid-elevation site. If the moonlight seems a problem, they'll move to deeper shadows. If clouds threaten, they will try to climb above them.

Avid amateurs are invited to join the journey, which is part of Eclipse Edge Expeditions.

Van Flandern said the eastern location was chosen to coincide with the pre-dawn peak of the shower, when the Leonid meteors will emanate from a point high in the sky. Further west, this so-called radiant point will be lower in the sky during the peak, so fewer meteors will be visible.

But, he said, observers "stuck" in the West or southwestern United States should still see a strong shower.

The peak will occur shortly after midnight in the West and around 2-3 a.m. in the Midwest. For all North American viewers, the shower should be worth watching from midnight to dawn.

This year's expected storm is the last in a series that dates back to 1999 for the Leonids. Beginning next year, things change dramatically. No Leonid storms are predicted again until 2033.

  • Leonids 2002 Special Report
    Complete Coverage through November, plus photos and videos from 2001
    and information about what causes the Leonids.

 

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