A month
ago, there was news that washed over astrobiologists like high tide in the Bay of Fundy: the existence of a possibly habitable planet around the nearby star Gliese
581.
It was
certainly one of the most encouraging discoveries in the whole planet-hunting
enterprise. And it got me thinking about the big picture. In particular, how
many such worlds are still beyond our telescopic ken, sequestered in the
rarefied gloom of the cosmos?
The
after-dinner answer to this question is "plenty."
Sure, that's
a vague response, but it's a radical change from the situation only a few
decades earlier. As a kid, I spent a lot of time sitting in the dark at New York's Hayden Planetarium. There, voice-of-God narrators would proclaim that the (then)
nine planets encircling the Sun were the product of a stellar fender-bender. Billions
of years ago, I was told, some random star happened to slide close to Sol, its
gravity pulling out hot, epidermal gas that cooled and condensed into planets.
That nifty,
near-collision scenario was first promoted by New Zealand astronomer Alexander
Bickerton near the end of the 19th century. Perhaps because of its
dramatic flair, or possibly because of its Genesis-like creation of fertile
planets from the roaring, incandescent ribs of the Sun, this improbable idea
enjoyed more popularity than it deserved. Had it been true (and the fact that
it couldn't be true was quickly obvious to theoreticians, since it failed to
account for the enormous angular momentum of the planets), a rip-off scheme
would mandate that our solar system is just about the only planetary assembly
in the entire Galaxy. Such near-collisions are incredibly rare. Single stars
are in one another's neighborhood about as often as Himalayan Sherpas are in
yours.
So we can
rule out the parenting of planets by two stars enjoying a brief encounter. Instead,
we now know that small, cold worlds emerge from a disk of gas and dust that
surrounds a nascent star. There is still some controversy about the details of
this process, but there's no doubt that Nature has concocted a commonplace
method for extracting scarce heavy atoms (silicon, carbon, oxygen, nickel,
iron) from the thin mists of protoplanetary disks, and rearranging them into
balls a few thousand miles thick. Planets o'plenty.
How
numerous is "plenty"? The tally of extrasolar planets is currently
about 240, a number that ticks over faster than Mario Andretti's odometer. Of all
the stars studied, roughly 5–10% are found to have planets. But our instruments
are far from perfect, and champion planet trapper Geoff Marcy figures that the
percentage of stars that are actually attended by planets is much higher.
"Virtually
all single stars (stars that are not in binary systems) must have planets of
some sort – rocky, gaseous, Neptune-like, and so forth," says Marcy.
"Among the binary stars, all those separated by at least the distance from
us to Pluto also have planets of some sort."
Since
roughly half of all stars are binary, and half of those are widely separated,
the bottom line is that Marcy suspects that roughly three-fourths of all
galactic stars have planets. From an astronomical perspective, that's as good
as all of them.
Now, how
many planets does each star have? Well, the Sun has eight, nine, or a few more,
depending on your semantic sympathies. But from the standpoint of
extraterrestrial biology, counting planets is hardly adequate, since there are
at least five moons in our own solar system that are big enough, and complex
enough, to tantalize us as possible abodes for life. We now know of seven other
worlds (two planets, in addition to the five moons) in our back yard that might
– just might – offer conditions suitable for life.
So here it
is: there are a few hundred billion stars in the Galaxy, and there are maybe a
hundred billion galaxies in that part of the cosmos we can survey with our
telescopes. With 5 or 10 interesting orbs per solar system, the visible
universe contains a hundred billion trillion worthy worlds. A hundred billion
trillion.
That's more
than all the dust motes floating in all the rooms of all the buildings of
Earth.
So sure,
the planet around Gliese 581 is beguiling. Maybe it has the conditions for
life, and maybe it even has life. Then again, maybe it doesn't. But as I
told my roommate when his girlfriend pranced off with the football quarterback,
"There are other fish in the sea."
Indeed, it's
fin city out there.