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Astronomers: Asteroid Hit Unlikely
By Andrew Bridges
Associated Press
posted: 09:35 am ET
25 July 2002
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PASADENA, Calif PASADENA, Calif. (AP) _ Astronomers said Wednesday that they are keeping close watch on a newly discovered 1.2 mile-wide asteroid to determine whether it will collide with Earth in 2019. There is a slight chance that the asteroid, dubbed 2002 NT7, could smack the Earth on Feb. 1, 2019, causing a global catastrophe. Astronomers said the odds were one in 250,000 and further calculation would probably show it will miss the planet entirely. It now heads the list of asteroids and comets monitored by NASA but as scientists learn more it isn't expected to stay there. ``One way or another, this thing is coming off the risk page,'' said Donald Yeomans, manager of NASA's near-Earth object program office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Astronomers with the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Project used a New Mexico telescope to discover the space rock on July 9, when it was about 84 million miles from Earth. It is in orbit around the sun. More than 100 follow-up observations allowed astronomers to calculate six other potential impact dates _ in 2044, 2053, 2060 and 2078. The asteroid will remain in the sights of astronomers for another year at least, allowing them to further refine their estimates of its trajectory on its 837-day orbit. ``At that point, if it's still a threat, I'd start to get a little concerned, but not before then,'' said Gareth Williams, associate director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass. In other cases where potential Earth-crossing asteroids have been discovered, it has typically taken just days or weeks to determine they pose no threat. This asteroid, however, is larger than most and has attracted more interest. Were the paths of 2002 NT7 and the Earth to cross, the object would cause widespread devastation. It would enter the atmosphere at nearly 64,000 mph and strike with the explosive energy of 1.2 million megatons of TNT, according to JPL estimates. Last month, an asteroid the size of a soccer field missed the Earth by 75,000 miles in one of the closest known approaches by an object that size.
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