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Mars Reality Check: Conference Offers Hope, Hurdles
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
25 October 2000
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think_mars_conf_001024 CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- It is a This Old House restoration plan for Mars. By using synthetic gases, the Red Planet could be returned to the habitable state it once was billions of years ago. Certain insects and plants would flourish. Liquid water would run freely. Even pine trees could take root and dot Mars surface too. Moreover, this remake of Mars could be accomplished within 50 to 100 years. Future travelers to Mars could walk underneath Martian skies, outfitted with only a simple breathing mask that spews out fresh oxygen. Thats the vision of Chris McKay, NASA space scientist from Ames Research Center. Mars could be made warmer by using synthetically made greenhouse gases -- those same nasty gases that are wreaking havoc with Earths climate. "Just the same old modest planet warming that were doing here on Earth will work fine on Mars," McKay said. However, youll have to hold your breath for a breathable Mars environment. The time scale that it would take to produce enough biomass on the planet to make an oxygen-rich atmosphere is a 100,000 years, McKay said. McKay was among top scientists at Think Mars, held here October 20-22 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Boom and bust -- or blastoff? While altering the ecosystem of Mars may be feasible, just getting human explorers to Mars in the first place may prove a daunting social task. A window of opportunity now exists this decade for initiating a humans-to-Mars program. But that window may close given the retirement of the baby boom generation from the 1940s, said Robert Zubrin, president of the Mars Society, based in Indian Hills, Colorado."If we dont get the humans-to-Mars program initiated during the first decade of the 21st century, it may be a very long time after that," Zubrin told the MIT audience. "All the incredible technological capabilities that were created in response to World War 2 and the Cold War will be allowed to whither away," he said. Zubrin said the financial wherewithal to put humans on Mars may be in jeopardy. "The baby boom generation began in 1945. Add 65 years to that and 2010 or so is when the baby boomers start to retire. By around 2015, youll have a much larger group that is retired being supported by a smaller group that is working. So the financial picture is going to darken," he told SPACE.com. 
| In 2003, NASA plans to send a pair of rovers to scout the Martian landscape. |
Unless a humans-to-Mars program is mounted within the first decade of the 21st century, Zubrin said, such a project is going to become increasingly difficult to do for another generation. Martian life: on the rocks The prospect remains that Mars is a humble, albeit cold and dry, abode for life. David McKay, a researcher at NASAs Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, said that microbial life on Mars today is likely. McKay led the team that in 1996 presented "lines of evidence" for possible Martian life within the Mars meteorite, ALH84001. "We havent proved life on Mars. We dont claim we discovered life on Mars. What we have here is a hypothesis. But we believe that the evidence supporting this hypothesis is stronger today than it was in 1996," McKay said. Studies of the ALH84001 meteorite are ongoing. New research continues to support the lines of evidence for possible biological origin, McKay said. "But we dont have a smoking gun," he said. Continued studies of Martian meteorites recovered here on Earth, as well as putting life-detection experiments on the Red Planet are a priority, McKay said. Furthermore, a sample of Mars rock and soil is needed to put the life on Mars question to rest, he said. McKay said that any radical hypothesis is always subject to intense criticism and scrutiny. "Thats the way it should be...this is how science works. The question is, when does it make the grade from hypothesis to accepted fact?" "Stay tuned. Thats my only advice," McKay told the MIT gathering. ~ Medical issues Ways to keep humans fit on any round-trip sojourn to Mars and back is getting increased attention at NASA. The International Space Station is key to prove out techniques and technologies to ensure astronaut health and well being, said Peter Ahlf, flight programs lead for life sciences within NASAs new Biological and Physical Research Enterprise. "We would probably leave tomorrow if we were willing to accept the risk as we understand it today. If we want to reduce the risk, that could very well take some time," Ahlf said. Similar in view was George Martin, an Air Force flight surgeon at Hanscom Air Force Base, Massachusetts. He said that muscle atrophy and bone mineral loss remain top problems facing long-duration space crews. "Theres lots of room to learn more," Martin said. "You have to prepare for the unknowns, as well," he said. Dragon slayers Martin said that astronauts and cosmonauts returning from Earth orbit show that deconditioning of the human body during space travel remains an issue. The numerous potential medical concerns may currently represent the most significant operational impediment to returning a Mars crew safely to Earth, he said. "There are lots of dragons out there. We have to become dragon slayers," Martin said. Building a huge spinning spacecraft to create artificial gravity for Mars-bound crews is not in the cards at this time, Ahlf said. "Our first goal is to avoid that engineering challenge is to come up with countermeasures that involve pharmaceuticals and or exercise," he said. A short-arm centrifuge, one that can be carried within a smaller spacecraft, is technically feasible, Ahlf said. Alf said that robotic exploration of Mars is also critical to scope out early potential risks to human crews. The impact on expeditionary crews from hazards created by dust storms, dust devils and lightning could prove worrisome, needs to be addressed. Go for growth Although dispatching humans to Mars is challenging, that should not deter ambitions for interplanetary treks between Earth and Mars, said MIT student, Margarita Marinova, a Think Mars organizer. Theres no reason to be tired and grumpy about the tough road ahead in making Mars reachable, she said. "Mars is a challenge. But I strongly believe that when you are put into a challenging situation, that is when you grow the most, both personally and intellectually," Marinova said. "Mars is a big step towards that growth. Its so very different from anything we know. I think by reaching for Mars, humanity is going to take a big leap in our understanding of ourselves, the solar system, and the universe," Marinova said.
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