The U.S. Navy's successful
missile hit and apparent destruction of a defunct spy satellite represents a
major step forward in the space arms race in the eyes of some analysts. Others
are not so sure.
One expert said last night's
hit was not an example of a real missile-defense system, targeting an unusually
low satellite that was essentially a sitting duck with a missile that is not
the nation's top-of-the line for such tasks.
Some say tensions with Russia and China will
increase following the U.S. anti-satellite demonstration, as both nations had
stated their opposition to the attempt. Others argue the United States
took necessary measures to ensure geopolitical stability and extend its
military dominance.
"This is obviously
being hailed as a victory both politically, because the [U.S.]
administration can claim there was no loss of life, and technically because it
worked," said Theresa Hitchens, Center for Defense Information director.
"It helped the [U.S.] Navy demonstrate the capabilities of its missile
defense system."
Last
night at approximately 10:26 p.m. EST, a U.S. Navy AEGIS warship, the USS Lake Erie,
launched a Standard Missile-3, which intercepted
the defunct spy satellite USA-193, also known as NROL-21, over the Pacific Ocean.
Defense Department officials say they think the missile successfully hit the
satellite's hydrazine tank, a potential hazard that was cited as the reason for
the shootdown.
Space arms race
The
exercise has severe implications, experts say, as it opens up a once-virgin
territory — space — for international weaponization. The potential for a
space arms race has some worried.
"It
was an unfortunate choice by the United States that seems to have been
unnecessary. The fact is that satellites fall from space all the time and the
risk of it was fairly minimal," said Stephen Young, the senior analyst in
Washington, D.C., for the Union of Concerned Scientist's Global Security Program.
"But the implications of the satellite shootdown could be very severe.
We're talking about a potential arms race in space."
"It's
a step backward in terms of weaponization of space because whatever the U.S.
government's official stance is, the world perception is that this was an ASAT
test," said Phil Smith, assistant director for Research and Planning for
the Secure World Foundation. "Perception is everything as they say in
politics. It's perceived not only in that way but that the U.S. is being
somewhat hypocritical when it condemned the Chinese launch and of course they
went ahead and did something that is going to be perceived as being just about
the same."
China has already demonstrated
its anti-satellite capabilities, with Russia indicating ASAT abilities in the 1980s. "The U.S. will be
in a worse position overall if other countries decide they also need the
ability to shoot down satellites," Young said.
The China
question
Experts have also suggested
the U.S. attempt could legitimize
China's anti-satellite demonstration that took place a year ago, and open
the doors for other nations such as India or Iran to do their own tests.
"Since China did
their ASAT [anti-satellite] test and got into political hot water, there's been
debate in China about whether to go forward," Hitchens said.
"This would seem to give PLA [People's Liberation Army] hardliners more
ammunition for their argument, and also gives other nations the signal that
it's okay if you test this technology if it's done safely."
Another expert saw China's
internal debate differently, even as China asked for more information about the U.S. satellite
shootdown.
"Their concern is not
whether they should continue with their military space program," said
Everett Dolman, a professor of comparative military studies at Maxwell Air Force
Base.
Dolman added that much of
the international outcry over China's test was over the large debris field left in orbit
by the Chinese satellite's destruction, and so the Chinese were likely
discussing how to prevent such international condemnation in future tests. He
sees the continuing weaponization of space as almost a certainty, particularly
as the U.S. and China continue jockeying to maintain and increase their
global power.
"If there is going to
be a big conflict between the U.S. and China, it's likely the first salvoes will be in space
because the security needs of the U.S. and China are incompatible there," Dolman said.
Regardless of differences in
opinion, most agreed that the U.S. anti-satellite demonstration sends a political
message for China and Russia.
"[The U.S.] certainly
did a good job in couching it in safety terms, which makes it harder to attack
outright," Young said, "but it seems fairly clear that the Chinese
and the Russians got the message: 'This is something we can do.'"
Necessary step?
At least one expert saw the demonstration as a crucial step by the
U.S. to ensure its military and political dominance if a space arms race
becomes inevitable.
"This was in my view a
very positive move by the U.S. for stability," said Dolman. "The fact
that you're using a Navy ship and a fairly standard weapon to do this is really
ratcheting up the technology curve."
The shootdown certainly
seems to confirm
U.S. technological prowess. The interceptor missile "was never designed
to engage a satellite," according to Raytheon Missile Systems, adding that
its success "demonstrates the capability of the SM-3 missile to meet a
unique situation and perform beyond its intended purpose."
Dolman observed that the U.S., China and Russia will
all try to control space in the near-future, but that developing anti-satellite
and other weapons won't necessarily lead to a catastrophic war because of the
relatively bloodless nature of space conflict.
"No one's ready for
control of space yet, although they'd all like to have that capability,"
Dolman said.
The
Secure World Foundation views the
shootdown as an opportunity for the U.S. government to spearhead efforts for an international
forum dealing with space-traffic management and weaponization issues.
"We
need to deal with this globally, because that satellite could've been a
different satellite, for example, belonging to a different country," Smith
said. "If it was characterized as a threat and we had the ability to shoot
it down and nobody else did then that becomes an international issue that needs
to be dealt with as transparently as possible."
But
so far, the U.S. government has come up a bit short on transparency
and international cooperation.
"One
fundamental truth is that this administration has demonstrated clearly a
preference for unilateral and military action over international and
cooperative actions," Young said. "We don't know how the decision was
made in the Bush administration but the fact that early on they were talking
about fairly modest risk and then suddenly 'we're going to shoot it down' ...
there was no indication at all that they were headed that way. It seems to the
outside observer, hey this would be fun. Let's go shoot something down."
Old news?
John Pike, a military
and security analyst who runs the highly regarded website Global Security.org,
believes the shootdown has no implications regarding the space arms race.
"In
my view it means nothing," Pike said. "it has no larger
implications."
Pike's
rationale is that the U.S. has demonstrated
its anti-satellite capabilities beginning in about 1985 and the missile
used in the shot last night doesn't have the ability for a real missile-defense
system.
"The
United States has got other better ways of shooting down
satellites. This is not a very good ASAT interceptor," Pike told SPACE.com.
The missile reached about 150 miles (241 km). "No self-respecting
satellite is ever going to find itself that low, because you're not going to
stay in orbit that long. Typically, satellites reside at an altitude of about
300 - 400 miles (483 – 644 km) in order to remain in orbit without extra
boosts.
In
addition, officials have said the resulting debris
from the obliterated satellite appears to be too small to cause any damage on
Earth. The destroyed satellite's debris was spotted in the sky by some West
Coast observers.
Pike
added that the U.S. will continue with missile defense testing.
"The Americans are going to continue conducting exo-atmospheric
ballistic-missile defense tests several times a year," Pike said.
"The Americans, I believe, have a covert unacknowledged space-based
anti-missile system that they may start testing in about five years."
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