It has been
five years since SpaceShipOne screamed its way into the history books as the
first privately built and financed manned craft to reach space. While that roar
from the ship's rocket engine has long since dissipated, the aftershocks from
its suborbital space shots are still being felt.
Roaring upward
over the Mojave, Calif., desert on repeat flights, pilots Mike Melvill and Brian Binnie
individually controlled the craft to the suborbital heights - and within the
span of a 14-day period. In doing so, on Oct. 4, 2004, the $10
million Ansari X Prize was won - and the vision of non-governmental spaceflight
became sharply focused.
Designed by
Mojave-based Burt Rutan - the lead out-of-the-box thinker of Scaled Composites
and his team - and financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, the
barrier-breaking vehicle earned
its stripes.
Its victory
was hailed by the banner: "SpaceShipOne, Government Zero."
Today, at
the Mojave Air and Space Port all appears in readiness for the combined test
flights of WhiteKnightTwo and the sleek two-pilot, six-person
SpaceShipTwo - the world's first passenger-carrying suborbital spaceliner.
This outing is backed by British entrepreneur, Sir Richard Branson and his
Virgin Galactic company. Like SpaceShipOne, the new SpaceShipTwo is designed to
be carried to a high altitude by a mothership aircraft where it can launch on
suborbital trips.
Above
the fold
Burt Rutan
reflects on the wake left by the pioneering SpaceShipOne flights, the winning
of the Ansari X Prize, and a glimpse at the road ahead.
"Our big milestone
of 2004 occurred on June 21, the date of the first non-government
manned spaceflight. The X Prize flights were an opportunity for our sponsor
and our employees to get a 'well-done bonus' and to show that our June
accomplishment was not a lucky fluke...that it really is feasible for low-cost
space access to be offered to the public," Rutan explained.
Rutan
proudly spotlights a "Google Trends" search that also shows the importance of
their first manned spaceflight. The Newsworthy Record , that is the number of
world newspapers that carried the story above the fold, showed that the June 21st
story was the second largest news event of 2004 - the first being the capture
of Saddam Hussein. Three of the five manned space flights of 2004 were flown
from Mojave, California.
"SpaceShipOne was my 39th manned aircraft type to be flight tested and was
clearly the most significant," Rutan said. "It was my last design...an
opportunity to hand over the reins to the very talented young designers at
Scaled."
Rutan said
that he has continued to design new concepts as Chief Technology Officer and
Chairman Emeritus of Scaled Composites.
"I may
design a future aircraft or two, but because of the rewarding experience of
SpaceShipOne for all my employees, I personally feel that my aircraft
development career is complete," Rutan told SPACE.com.
Historic,
game changing
A witness
to all three of the SpaceShipOne flights was Will Whitehorn, President of
Virgin Galactic. "Those breathtaking X Prize flights were worthy of every
cliche in the book...historic, game changing...all in all, the right stuff!"
When
SpaceShipOne pilot Brian Binnie shot skyward on the second of back-to-back
suborbital treks to snag the X Prize purse, Whitehorn considered that historic
day as "one which will change the face of the space industry forever."
And as the wispy
contrail from that prize-winning run turned invisible, there were a host of
judgments remaining, Whitehorn told SPACE.com. "Big decisions had to
follow...such as whether to rebuild SpaceShipOne as a commercial vehicle, or take
the braver and more costly decision to build a truly capable integrated space
launch system," he said.
Fast
forward to the present: The WhiteKnightTwo/SpaceShipTwo is viewed as that space
launch system. The combo of flight hardware not only gives space tourists what
they wanted, but also supports human-in-the-loop science and launching
satellites as well, Whitehorn said.
"It is now
five years on and where are we? Flying the launch vehicle...firing the rocket
motor...on the cusp of unveiling the finished SpaceShipTwo and of course watching
a runway unfold in the New Mexico desert," Whitehorn added, pointing to the
development of Spaceport America – home base for Virgin Galactic commercial
operations.
"Hundreds
of Virgin Galactic, Scaled and Spaceport America people are working towards a
true industrial revolution in space," Whitehorn concluded. "I, for one, can't
wait, but will never forget the fact that the Ansari X prize was a real
catalyst for these events."
Quiet
before the storm
"Right now
is the quiet before the storm," said Rick Tumlinson, a leader in the NewSpace
movement and co-founder of the Space Frontier Foundation. He points to a trio
of past events that has brought about the emerging space squall.
"The winning of the X Prize, the takeover of the Mir space station by private
investors and the flight of Dennis Tito to the space station were the three
shots that convinced investors that there was a market for commercial human
spaceflight, a way to capitalize on it in the near term...and people willing to
put money into the idea," Tumlinson said.
Comparing it to the moment before the flag is dropped on a race track, "the
teams are building their cars and rolling them out to the starting line,"
Tumlinson said.
The
Tumlinson timeline: Within the next few months the first companies will begin
flights and within two years the first paying customers will be flying. Within
three years the first commercial facilities will be overhead and within five
years you will be able to fly commercially to orbit on a private spaceship.
"NewSpace
has been through some major shakeouts, with only a few of the many firms surviving
that were around when the X Prize was won. In fact,
Scaled Composites may be the only one of the registered competitors that did
survive," Tumlinson said.
"It is important to maintain perspective. Some would have us believe that the X
Prize all by itself signaled the NewSpace revolution. It did not," he added. "There
were a lot of people working on a lot of important projects for at least a
decade before it was won, and by itself it would not have been anything more
than a news blip."
Tumlinson
said that beyond Scaled/Virgin Galactic, none of the other surviving NewSpace
firms that really have a chance to succeed competed for the X Prize at all.
"XCOR and Armadillo Aerospace refused to participate, and the billionaire guys
like Bezos, Bigelow and Musk are doing their own thing completely," he added.
New set
of investors
Peter
Diamandis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the X Prize Foundation has a
different take on the spark stemming from the X Prize.
"Since the
Ansari X Prize was won in 2004, over $1 billion in capital has been invested
into the personal spaceflight industry," Diamandis said. "Of the 26 teams from
seven nations that competed, I would guess that about a quarter of them remain
viable and are pushing toward commercial operations."
In looking
back over the past five years, Diamandis said that one of the most important
results of the Ansari X Prize involves credentialing this slice of the industry
as real, as well as stimulating this market sector.
"People now
know and believe that they can buy a private ticket to space without having to
be a government employee," Diamandis noted. "Other benefits include helping to
clarify the regulatory regime and bringing a new set of investors and sponsors
to fund the entrepreneurs who have dedicated their lives to this industry
sector."
Claims,
rhetoric, and drama
While
SpaceShipOne's snaring of the X Prize showcased the possible, as well as what
was attainable, hubris shouldn't be the propellant for pushing forward.
That
cautionary view is espoused by David Livingston, the host of "The Space Show"
- a popular talk
radio and streaming Internet program. On one hand, SpaceShipOne's victory started opening a tightly
closed door for investment which is opening even wider today.
"That said, accessing space is not
easy or dirt cheap - be it suborbital, orbital, or actually going someplace rather
than just orbiting Earth," Livingston said. "While I believe the entrepreneurs
and businessmen and women know how to kick the door wide
open and establish needed space economic infrastructure to develop
this new industry, I have my doubts about policy makers, our elected officials,
and those motivated to hold on to old agendas that won't work for the new
space economy."
Livingston sees an increase in the
claims and rhetoric by enthusiasts, dreamers, advocates, and those wanting to
be very much a part of a truly space-faring world.
"The risk here is that as
the extremes in the claims, rhetoric, and drama get exposed to the light
of the day as being nothing more than what they are, they fuel the arguments
and unenlightened ways of those in power - or in influential positions -
and they add to the risks of sidetracking or slowing down commercial
space development," Livingston asserted.
The bottom line is that real space
development is essential for our future, Livingston said. "Let's keep it
real so we can achieve our goals and improve our world."
Leonard
David has been reporting on the space industry for more than four decades. He
is past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society's Ad Astra and Space
World magazines and has written for SPACE.com since 1999.
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