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Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids
A Homeland Defense for Planet Earth
Uneven Heating Sends Space Rocks to Earth
To Nuke or To Nudge
More Asteroids in Main Belt, New Infrared Survey Says
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 09:04 am ET
05 April 2002

The first systematic survey of the asteroid belt done in infrared wavelengths indicates that there are more large asteroids, those more than 1 kilometer (0 A systematic survey of the asteroid belt done in infrared wavelengths indicates that there could be two or three times more large asteroids, those more than 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) in diameter, than had been thought.

Based on observations of portions of the main asteroid belt, between Mars and Jupiter, the new study estimates there are between 1.1 million and 1.9 million of these large space rocks. Many millions or perhaps billions of smaller asteroids travel around the Sun in the same belt.

Asteroids in the main belt are not generally considered to be a threat to Earth anytime in the near future, so the new estimate is not likely to alter calculations of the risk of our planet being hit by one. But it does highlight how little is known about the contents of our solar system.

The new survey was made using the European Space Agency's Infrared Space Observatory (ISO).

"If you consider the average value of 1.5 million asteroids, the ISO result is about twice as high as estimated by two other recent studies in visible light," said Edward Tedesco of TerraSystems, Inc. in New Hampshire. Tedesco conducted the study with François-Xavier Desert at the Observatoire de Grenoble, France.

Counting in circles

"I think the ISO results are significant in that they show, once again, just how little we still know about the population of asteroids in our cosmic environment," said Benny Peiser, a researcher at Liverpool John Moores University who tracks asteroid studies.

How true. Just last November, another group of astronomers released a study based on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, projecting that the main asteroid belt held some 700,000 space rocks larger than 1 kilometer (0.6 miles). Prior to that study, estimates had ranged up to around two million -- similar to the new estimate announced today.

Here are the firm facts:

As of March 28, exactly 39,462 asteroids had been visually detected and officially catalogued. More have been spotted but not yet put in the books. Of these, about 500 large asteroids have been found nearer to Earth. These so-called Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) are watched more closely, since over time gravitational tugs from the planets and other factors could change the asteroid's courses enough to send them toward us.

Experts figure there are probably somewhere between 900 and 1,200 total Near Earth Asteroids larger than 1 kilometer (0.6 miles).

No asteroids are currently known, with any certainty, to be on a collision course. Just yesterday, however, scientists announced that an asteroid called 1950 DA has a maximum 1-in-300 chance of hitting Earth in the year 2880. But researchers said that based on their lack of data, the risk could actually be zero. Yet they won't know for sure for years or possibly decades.

"We are still far away from a firm knowledge about the real number of and risks from the asteroids of the solar system," Peiser said.

More about the survey

The new survey, called the ISO Deep Asteroid Search (IDAS), detected heat given off by asteroids, rather than optical light.

Because it is impossible to actually count all asteroids with present technology, the astronomers chose selected regions of the asteroid belt and then used a theoretical model to extrapolate the data to the whole belt. The observations were actually done in 1996 and 1997. Only recently, however, was the data processed.

The infrared survey is better able to spot dark asteroids that might be missed by optical telescopes, said the ISO researchers.

Yet Tedesco said both visible and infrared searches might have their own biases, which is the reason why the new study's estimate was given as a range.

Scientists generally agree that the chance of a large NEA hitting Earth is about 1-in-5,000 over the next century.

The new results do not change these odds, researchers agree.

But Tedesco and Desert said that improved knowledge of the number and size distribution of asteroids in the main belt is essential to understand the population of NEAs, since most are believed to be former main belt asteroids. As understanding improved, odds could change, they indicated.

More Asteroid News | Astronomy News Briefs

 

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