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Super Volcanoes: Satellites Eye Deadly Hot Spots

By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
07 August 2001

Sci Tuesday

The latest eruption of Mt. Etna in Sicily, which has destroyed a few buildings, shut down the airport and crept into a ski area, produces dramatic nighttime video of hot rolling lava and explosive fireworks. But compared to the known history of volcanoes and even its own past, Etna's 2001 pyrotechnic show is so far geologically pathetic.

Likewise, the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 was a volcanic sneeze compared to what scientists say America will experience one day. And a mysterious four-inch-high bulge in the ground of central Oregon is, so far, little more than a conversation piece.

Sooner or later, geologists warn, a "super volcano" will strike.able -->


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   Images

Graphic shows the effect a super volcano at Yellowstone would have.


JPL scientists used InSAR to model lava flow is modeled on a volcano on the island of Miyake-Jima, Japan.


The ash plume from the recent eruption of Mt. Etna in Italy is spotted by the ESA's ERS-2 satellite.


The Three Sisters bulge is seen in this satellite radar interferogram. Each color band represents about 1 inch (2.8 cm.) of uplift.

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The eruption of pent-up energy will cover half the United States in ash, in some places up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep. Earth will be plunged into a perpetual winter that would last years. Some plant and animal species will disappear forever.

Even humans could be pushed to the edge of extinction. Anthropologists suggest it won't be the first time.

But well before such a calamity, warning flags will likely show up on the computers of geologists around the world who monitor an increasingly useful stream of satellite data.

A host of U.S. and European satellites have been trained to see "hot spots," where underground molten rock is pushing its way to the surface. The new view is giving researchers an unprecedented peek into how volcanoes work.

What they see is often illuminating. Sometimes it is just plain frightening.

Yellowstone's other hibernating danger

Geologists have long known that the 10,000 hot springs and geysers in Yellowstone National Park are evidence of magma, hot molten rock below the surface. And they know that long ago the region experienced colossal eruptions on a scale never seen in recorded history.

But an important question has evolved in recent years: Is Yellowstone dying or just hibernating?

In the July 2001 issue of the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, University of Wisconsin geologists Ilya Bindeman and John Valley report new evidence indicating "a high probability of a future catastrophic eruption sometime within the next million years, and possibly within the next hundred thousand years."

Analyzing minerals that serve as time capsules of past catastrophes, Bindeman and Valley have found support for other studies suggesting Yellowstone goes nuts every few hundred thousand years. They also propose a reason why: An epic hot spot.

Hot magma welling up from below acts like a burner, the researchers say, melting surface rock and forming giant chambers of lava that build up over long periods. Eventually, the chambers burst and release their fury.

Yellowstone's volcanism is dying, these researchers say, but it has at least one last gasp in store.

The new geologic evidence adds to satellite data showing that the treasured park straddling Idaho, Montana and Wyoming is destined to obliterate its own beauty. Not to mention that of a few surrounding states.

Yellowstone from space

Chuck Wicks of the U.S. Geological Survey uses a relatively new satellite technique called satellite radar interferometry to watch the ground rise, fall and morph around volcanoes and other volcanically active areas. While the Global Positioning System can also show ground movement, it does so only for locations where a monitor is in place on the ground.

But with radar interferometry, geologists map the topography of an entire region, then watch it change over time.

In 1997, Wicks and his colleagues used the technique to document uplifts at Yellowstone, which means the lava below was pushing its way to the surface. "Yellowstone is alive and very active," Wicks said.

But no one can say if or when it might become dangerously active. If a volcano is like a hibernating bear, however, then it may well be volcanic springtime in Yellowstone.

"Super explosions, about 1,000 times more material erupted than Mt. St. Helens in 1980, happen about every 600,000 years at Yellowstone," Wicks says. "And it's been about 620,000 years since the last super explosive eruption there."

Next Page: The mysterious bulge in Oregon

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