SPACE.com:
What's more dangerous, Siberian mosquitoes or rocks from space?
Roy
A. Gallant:
I'll take the mosquitoes. At least you can hit back.
Because
the 1908 meteor exploded above ground, little is known about the object. What new
insights can you give us? Was it a comet or an asteroid?
Not
really any new insights into the cause of the event, more a matter of
accumulating evidence tending to support the notion that the exploding object
was a comet nucleus. This is the collective opinion of most Russian
investigators; although some say they cannot confidently rule out a stony
asteroid. Although computer modeling can be helpful, it is not a reliable
substitute for the types of field investigations I report in my book.
Based
on your research, what did the event look like to an observer standing at a
(barely) safe distance?
There
was blinding light from the explosion--violent flash accompanied by an
extremely hot and violent wind, and there was a pressure wave strong enough to
knock people down. Add to that thunderous noise sounding like batteries of
artillery fire. Then the expansive forest burst into flame. Many close to the
blast were temporarily deafened, struck dumb and speechless, and fell to the
ground in a state of shock.
What
would happen if a similar event occurred over a metropolitan region?
If
there had been a difference of one hour when the Tunguska object struck, it
would have exploded over St. Petersburg and killed about 500,000 people.
Experts
agree it's only a matter of time before a much larger object hits the planet.
How worried are you about the survival of civilization?
I'm
not at all worried since there's nothing I or any one else can do to prevent a
planet-crunching asteroid a few kilometers in diameter from largely destroying the
civilized world. It's a numbers game. We simply have no way of knowing when
we'll be hit again. You read a lot of numbers--certain size asteroids striking
Earth every 1000 or 50,000 or 500,000 years. If we haven't been hit for a long
time, does that mean we are likely to be hit soon? Not necessarily. Anyone
versed in probability theory can tell you that the past occurrence of the sum
of seven turning up on the next dice toss has nothing whatever to do with the
number of times seven has shown up in the previous 20 or so tosses.
Who
are your heroes and how have they influenced your work?
I
have many heroes in science, among them Charles Darwin and others like him who
devoted a great part of their lives nurturing an old hypothesis and watching it
evolve into theory, and eventually gain the status of scientific principle, all
through their tireless and methodical collection of evidence. But science tends
not to be done that way any more. Just turn to the title page of most major articles
in the journals NATURE and SCIENCE and see the multiple by-lines,
sometimes up to a dozen or so investigators. The new technologies in biology
and physics, for example, are making a rarity out of the potential Darwins or a
Copernicus.
What
most upsets you about science or scientists?
There's
nothing about science as a means of investigating the natural world that upsets
me, even though a scientists' search for truth is bound to step on toes every
now and then. For the most part, I think scientists are a pretty honest lot
with well-defined goals. The scientists who do not fit that pattern are those
who have sold out to the tobacco, nuclear, and certain other industries that
try to convince us that their product or activity is perfectly safe, when they know
just the opposite is true.
If
you controlled a $1 billion foundation, what research effort would you fund?
Since
a billion dollars isn't all that much money these days, I'd look for a relatively
modest research effort, perhaps one directed more toward education rather than
expensive hardware that might teach us how to mine an asteroid. In the field of
astronomy, perhaps an effort to identify the misconceptions young people have
about basic astronomy, space, space travel, the nature and probability of life
elsewhere in the universe and the philosophical implications of its discovery.
The second, and major, part of my program would be the preparation,
publication, and distribution of educational materials at the junior high and
up levels. Such materials would be relatively inexpensive, and their funds
generated would go back into the program to make it largely self-sustaining.
Why
should we spend money on space exploration over research into deadly diseases?
I
see no reason why we shouldn't be doing both at the same time.
What
is the most beautiful aspect to space?
Its
silence and profoundly humbling aspect.