Stratfor Systems, an Austin, Texas strategic research group, says that Chinas lack of military space systems poses a growing problem for that countrys attempts at extending its power into the region.

According to the new analysis, China is attempting to obtain space reconnaissance technology and other advanced space systems. Obtaining such capabilities, Stratfor says, would be virtual prerequisites to any military attack on Taiwan.

"Without these satellites, use of its missiles would be impractical," Stratfor says. "Without those missiles, there is no hope of securing the sea lanes across the Taiwan Straits. Without that security, there would be no hope of mounting an invasion."

Satellite reconnaissance capability is needed by China to target anti-ship missiles against Taiwanese and possibly any defending U.S. naval forces, "as well as against aircraft that can be redeployed in minutes," the review states.

Stratfor said that key to preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was to "shut down" any Chinese missile attack. "This in turn means the U.S. must be in a position to blind China strategically and operationally... and that means an anti-satellite system," in use by the U.S., the report said.

Stratfor repeated claims of some analysts that China "had equipped their satellites with engines for maneuverability," indicating that they are "aware of the importance of their satellites and the threat presented by the development of a U.S. anti-satellite systems."

The U.S. does not currently have an operational anti-satellite capability and the Clinton administration has not sought such a system. The last existing U.S. anti-satellite system was a limited capability to launch an anti-satellite missile from F-15 aircraft. That system has not been in operation since the mid-1980s and was mainly targeted against satellites of the former Soviet Union.

While Stratfor said it had "no doubt" that China has sought to steal U.S. space reconnaissance satellite and anti-satellite technology, the overwhelming superiority of the existing U.S. military space systems had rendered any prospect of a near-term attack against Taiwan unlikely. Because of their lack of space assets, "it seems to us impossible that China can gain air superiority over the Taiwan Straits. Therefore, an invasion is impossible," the review says.

"The China-Taiwan debate means that the U.S. will intensify its efforts at defending its space based assets and eventually deploy a sophisticated anti-satellite system," it predicted.