Sun fires powerful M6.9 solar flare and CME toward Earth — could it boost northern lights chances this week?

A close up view of the sun as a large eruption occurs - the m-class solar flare. in the background is earth from space. — Close up view of the M6.9 solar flare in NOAA 19 imagery. (Image credit: Inset: NOAA GOES 19, graphic created in Canva Pro)

Today (Aug. 25), the sun unleashed a powerful M6.9 solar flare from a restless Earth-facing sunspot, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space — and Earth could potentially be in the firing line.

The M6.98 solar flare erupted from the active sunspot region 4513 and peaked at 6 a.m. EDT (1000 GMT), according to SpaceWeatherLive. 4513 has been particularly active over the last 24 hours, firing off a barrage of solar flares including five powerful M-class eruptions.

Solar flares are ranked by strength into five classes — A, B, C, M and X — with each class 10 times more powerful than the one before it. M-class flares are the second-strongest category, sitting just below the most powerful X-class eruptions.

The eruption also triggered a moderate (R2) radio blackout across the sunlit side of Earth, affecting high-frequency radio communications over parts of Africa, Europe and the Arctic.

map showing high frequency radio disruptions shortly after the solar flare. the areas most affected are europe, africa and the Arctic. — High-frequency radio blackouts from the M-class solar flare on Aug. 25. (Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center)

CME incoming

Now, all eyes are on the CME launched during today's M6.9 eruption.

Early modelling suggests Earth could receive a glancing blow from the CME on Friday (Aug. 28). According to aurora chaser Jure Atanackov, NASA's model predicts the CME could reach Earth at around 6-7 a.m. EDT (1000-1100 GMT), with an uncertainty of around seven hours.

Here we go. This is the NASA M2M WSA-ENLIL+Cone model prediction for the CME. A glancing blow, as indicated by lopsided EUV dimming. The arrival is expected on August 28th (Friday) around 10-11h UTC (+/-7h). Slow, not expecting much from this one. https://t.co/GmyhSbxTGn pic.twitter.com/EkoZBmyKYKAugust 25, 2026

Though Atanackov described the CME as slow-moving and said he isn't expecting much from the glancing encounter, there's another piece of the space weather puzzle that could make things interesting for aurora chasers.

According to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC), a high-speed stream of solar wind from a positive-polarity coronal hole is expected to begin influencing Earth from Aug. 27. SIDC forecasts unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of minor storm levels as the fast solar wind arrives.

If the glancing CME arrival coincides with the high-speed solar wind stream, the two influences could work together to ramp up geomagnetic activity and potentially enhance aurora activity.

How much of an impact the CME ultimately has will depend on its exact arrival time and, crucially, the orientation of its magnetic field when it reaches Earth. A strong southward magnetic field would interact more effectively with Earth's magnetic field, increasing the chances of stronger geomagnetic activity.

We'll be keeping a close eye on the latest models and space weather forecasts as Friday approaches and will update this story as more information becomes available.

Daisy Dobrijevic joined Space.com in February 2022, having previously worked as a staff writer for All About Space magazine. She completed an editorial internship with BBC Sky at Night Magazine and worked at the National Space Centre, communicating space science to the public.

Daisy holds a PhD in plant physiology and a Master's in Environmental Science. Based in Nottingham, U.K., she covers all things space, with a special focus on solar activity and space weather. She also has a keen interest in astrotourism and is always on the lookout for the next northern lights adventure.

She will be a guest speaker aboard HX's Solar Eclipse Expedition in August 2026 and will join Hurtigruten as an onboard astronomer for a northern lights sailing in January 2027.