SPACE.com -- Newfound Asteroid to Pass Near Earth in mid-August

ORBIT: Seen from above the solar system, the orbit of asteroid 2002 NY40 passes very close to the orbit of the Earth. This image shows the orbits of both and their positions on Aug. 18.

SKY MAP: Asteroid 2002 NY40 comes closest to Earth on the morning of Aug. 18. This image shows the sky at 4 a.m. EDT on that morning, as seen from mid-northern latitudes. The yellow dots mark the asteroid's position at 1 hour intervals from Midnight through the early morning of Aug. 18. The bright star Vega serves as a guidepost.

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	Newfound Asteroid to Pass Near Earth in mid-August By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 02:00 pm ET 23 July 2002

Asteroid to Become Visible in Small Telescopes

In a rare event slated for mid-August, an asteroid will pass close enough to Earth to be visible through binoculars and small telescopes.

The giant boulder, named 2002 NY40, was discovered about a month ago.

On Aug. 18, the asteroid will be 327,200 miles (526,600 kilometers) from Earth, according to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass. That will put it well beyond the Moon's orbit. The asteroid's exact size is not known but it is "somewhat smaller than 1 kilometer [0.62 miles] in diameter," said Gareth Williams, associate director of the center.

Rough estimates by astronomers have put the asteroid at 500 meters (547 yards) wide. A pair of Louisiana Superdomes would fit inside an object this size with ample room leftover for parking.

Asteroid 2002 NY40 should brighten to about magnitude 9.3 on Aug. 18, Williams told SPACE.com. The faintest objects visible to the unaided eye are around magnitude 6.0, on a scale where larger numbers indicated dimmer objects. The brightest stars in the sky are typically categorized as zero or first magnitude.

An asteroid becomes as bright as 2002 NY40 from our terrestrial vantagepoint only about once or twice a decade. However, a similar event occurred last December. The next time a known asteroid will appear this bright is in 2004.

Two days prior to its closest approach, the asteroid will achieve a brightness of magnitude 12. By Aug. 19, a day after closest approach, its brightness will drop off dramatically, to magnitude 21.

Asteroid 2002 NY40 presents no danger of hitting Earth on this pass around the Sun. However, astronomers have calculated eight close passes on future orbits, one of which in the year 2022 presents an extremely low (but not zero) probability of an impact. Experts say an object this large could cause regional destruction, change the world climate temporarily, and kill millions of people if it hit a populated area.

Similar calculations for other asteroids have been made in the past, however, and typically, the odds go to zero when more observations are made and the numbers are refined. The chances of any asteroid as big or larger than 2002 NY40 hitting Earth sometime in the next century are put at about 1-in-400.

Asteroid 2002 NY40 was first spotted July 14 with the 1-meter (3-foot) LINEAR telescope in Socorro, New Mexico. Its discovery contrasts with that of another asteroid, 2002 MN, which had an even closer brush with Earth in June but was not detected until three days later, by the same facility.

Every few months, typically, an asteroid passing within the Moon's orbit is noticed before or shortly after it makes its closest approach to Earth.

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