BOULDER,
Colo.
-- As NASA and its industrial army march forward to this year's return to flight
of the space shuttle program, a new assessment has been made on the program's
overall price tag to the taxpayer.
The data show that over the entire lifetime of the the space shuttle program the cost has been $145 billion, and
about $112 billion since the program became operational.
Furthermore, the average cost per flight has been about $1.3
billion over the life of the program and about $750 million over its most
recent five years of operations.
Updated
shuttle stats
This tale of the tally comes from Roger Pielke, Jr.,
Director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research here at the University of Colorado. The updated shuttle stats
build upon research he published in 1994, as well as drawing from the work of
the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Also reviewed in the appraisal is
the new NASA budget request for fiscal year 2006 that outlines expected shuttle
costs -- in 2004 dollars -- through 2010.
Because NASA has costs for the shuttle program that are not
reflected in its budget line, Pielke said it is appropriate to add 10 percent
to these totals and also to adjust those expenses to common year dollars.
Given that fine-tuning, if the space shuttle program is
terminated after 2010, then it will have a total lifetime cost of about $173
billion, Pielke reported.
Pielke pointed out that if the shuttle program averages four
flights per year upon a return to flight, then the NASA space plane will fly an
additional 22 times, for a total of 134 flights over its lifetime.
Given that flight rate, this will result in a total program
cost per flight of $1.3 billion, Pielke explained. Of further interest is the
average cost per flight from 2004-2010: It is $1.3 billion. The average cost
per flight from the middle of 2005 through 2010, assuming 22 flights, is about
$1.0 billion, he said.
Performance
versus promise
All of these numbers fall squarely within the range that
Pielke and space policy associate, Radford Byerly, Jr. projected in a early
1990's paper on the performance of the space shuttle program through 2010: "The
Space Shuttle Program: Performance versus Promise" -- a chapter in the book, Space
Policy Alternatives, published by Westview Press in 1992.
Putting his calculator and shuttle spread sheets aside,
Pielke said the new research brings up several points.
First of all, space policy analysts have had a pretty good
handle on the policy and political dynamics, including costs, of the shuttle
program for some time now. "The shuttle program has been through its life
plagued by promises of costs and performance that have been overly optimistic.
We should know better by now," Pielke told SPACE.com.
Pielke said that the shuttle program "has been and will
continue" to be expensive. "We should open up debate and discussion on the
future space program to a wide range of alternatives, and include many voices
beyond NASA and the traditional space flight community. There is strength
in such diversity."
What's
ahead?
Looking to the past 30 years provides a unique perspective
on the next three decades, Pielke advised, that is, if there is an assumption that
human space flight is supported in the future as it has been in the past.
"There is no reason to expect that public support will
diminish," Pielke concluded. If that's the case, then what might be the best
use of $150 billion to $200 billion dollars in a space program?
"Above all, we should make sure that promises and commitments
of performance are realistic and achievable. The history of the shuttle and the
International Space Station gives us a lot to learn from," Pielke stated. "One
is not to plan for big future budget increases as the basis for future
successes."
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