CAPE CANAVERAL -- NASA's Orion spaceship and the astronauts
onboard might not survive an explosive launch failure of the agency's proposed
Ares I moon rocket, analyses by Air Force safety experts show.
But NASA says new supercomputer analyses will prove the Ares
I launch
abort system would do its job, propelling the Orion crew module and
astronauts safely away from a dangerous maelstrom of fire and debris during an
emergency.
"We feel we have a very, very, very safe first
stage. Very reliable," said Jeff Hanley, manager of NASA's Project
Constellation, which is developing Ares rockets and Orion spacecraft in an
effort to replace retiring shuttles and to ultimately carry astronauts to the
moon by 2020. "We think we have a very robust design for the abort
environment."
The Ares I rocket is being designed to launch astronauts
inside Apollo-like
Orion capsules into Earth's orbit.
The Air Force finding came as part of a "statement of
capability" that gave the Ares I rocket a preliminary green light to fly
from the Air Force Eastern Range, although additional reviews will continue for
years. The Air Force's range provides tracking and safety services for all
launches from Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.
The finding was detailed in a May 20 memo from Brig. Gen.
Edward Bolton, commander of the 45th Space Wing headquartered at Patrick Air
Force Base, to Hanley. A copy was obtained by FLORIDA TODAY.
"Recent Air Force studies have called into question the
survivability of the crew module in the fratricide environment from a
destructing first-stage solid rocket booster," the memo said.
The statement means that if the first stage blew up in
flight, it could blast explosive solid rocket debris into the Orion crew module
before its launch abort system could propel it to safety.
The launch abort system is a towering pole outfitted with
small rocket motors that, when fired, would lift an Orion capsule off the top
of the exploding Ares I rocket. A parachute system would enable the astronauts
to land safely.
The Ares I rocket and all others launched from the Eastern
Range are equipped with flight-termination systems.
The system is made up of pyrotechnic devices that Air Force
range safety personnel on the ground can use to deliberately destroy errant
rockets if towns or communities along Florida's Space Coast were threatened.
The Air Force memo questions whether Ares' launch abort
system would provide "sufficient separation from a destruction first stage
. . . to avoid fratricide to the crew module." That means debris would
endanger the ship.
Hanley stressed that the statistical probability of an Ares
I first-stage failure is remote. He pinpointed it at 1 in 3,000 to 1 in 3,500.
The overall probability of a catastrophic Ares I launch
failure is 1 in 2,800. That's a significant improvement over the 1 in 200
chance of losing a shuttle during launch and ascent to orbit.
Since the shuttle fleet returned to flight after the
Challenger accident, 202 redesigned solid rocket motors have successfully
launched with the shuttle. The booster is the basis for the Ares I rocket.
The Air Force memo also questioned whether the range could
support plans to launch the Ares V and Ares I within 90 minutes, which is the
plan outlined in what NASA calls its "reference mission" for moon
flights.
NASA intends to loft an Earth-departure stage and Altair
lunar module on the much more powerful Ares V first. The crew would follow on
an Ares I very soon after. The Orion spacecraft would hook up with the other
vehicles in Earth's orbit and head out on trips to the moon.
Hanley noted that NASA launched similar dual missions from
Cape Canaveral during the Gemini program during the 1960s.
Contact Halvorson at thalvorson@floridatoday.com.
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under license from FLORIDA TODAY. Copyright © 2009 FLORIDA TODAY. No portion of
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