This story was updated at 11:45 p.m. EDT.
The large asteroid Apophis poses less of a threat of
walloping the Earth in the year 2036 than previously thought, new research
finds.
The Apophis
asteroid, discovered in 2004, is larger than two football fields in size
and has captured the space rock limelight in recent years because of its potential
to hit Earth in the relatively near future.
The asteroid would not cause a global catastrophe, but could
likely spawn significant
regional devastation if it were ever to strike the planet, scientists have
said.
Now, new data from observations made with the University of Hawaii's 88-inch telescope near the summit of Mauna Kea have allowed astronomers
to recalculate the space rock's orbital path. Fortunately for us, the new path indicates
that the asteroid is less likely
to smack Earth.
"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that
has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Steve
Chesley, a near-Earth object scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
(JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. "Updated computational techniques and newly
available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13,
2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a
million."
Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance
of impacting
Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteroid ruled out any
possibility of an impact in 2029.
However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting —
but harmless — close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes
no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface.
The new data shows that the asteroid will make another close
approach with Earth in 2068 with the chance of impact currently at
approximately three-in-a-million. As with the other potential impacts, now
ruled as mere close encounters, the probability of the 2069 impact is expected
to go down as more information on the asteroid is gathered.
"The refined orbital determination further reinforces
that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting
science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans,
manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can
follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by
visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the
@AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."
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