WASHINGTON
— A blue ribbon panel tasked with reviewing NASA's manned spaceflight program
delivered to the White House Tuesday a 12-page summary of its findings,
including two options based closely on the space agency's current plan for
replacing its aging space shuttle fleet.
The panel,
led by retired Lockheed Martin chief Norman Augustine, will not release its
full report until later in September. But of the five basic options outlined in
the summary, two would continue with the Constellation
program, under which NASA is developing the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle
and Ares I launcher to replace the space shuttle along with an Ares V
heavy-lift rocket and other systems that would enable the agency to return
astronauts to the Moon.
Four of the
options would delay the retirement of the space shuttle from the end of 2010 as
currently planned to some time in 2011; the other would extend that program out
to 2015.
The first,
or baseline, option would continue
Constellation under U.S. President Barack Obama's current five-year budget
profile for NASA. Under this scheme U.S. involvement in the international space
station would end in 2016. However, this option does not fund shuttle
operations into 2011; nor does it fund the scuttling of the space station.
Orion and Ares I would not be available before 2016. Ares V, meanwhile, would
not become available until the late 2020s, and the Altair lander and other
lunar-surface exploration systems would not be ready until "well into the
2030s, if ever," the report summary states.
A second
option that also fits within the current budget profile would extend the space
station to 2020 and start work on a smaller version of the cargo-carrying Ares V.
This option also would fund a technology development program and pursue a
commercial crew capability to deliver astronauts to and from low Earth orbit.
It does not deliver a heavy-lift launch capability until the late 2020s, and
does not include funds to develop the other systems needed to land on the
Moon.
More
options, more money
The
remaining three options assume NASA's funding profile for space exploration
programs increases steadily over the next five years to $3 billion higher than
currently envisioned in 2014. After that, it would be allowed to grow at the
rate of inflation, estimated at 2.4 percent.
The first
of these higher-budget options — the third option overall — would stick with
the current plan for Constellation but require NASA to budget for de-orbiting
the space station in 2016 and shuttle operations into 2011. It would continue developing
Orion, Ares I and Ares V, with a maiden voyage for the crew capsule and its
launcher by 2017 and lunar exploration by the mid-2020s.
A fourth
option, dubbed "Moon First," would extend the space station to 2020, fund
technology advancement and rely on commercial vehicles to carry crews to low
Earth orbit. Two variants of this option are included, the first of which would
retire the shuttle in 2011 and develop a lighter version of the Ares V. A
second variant would extend the space shuttle to 2015 to eliminate the gap in
U.S. human spaceflight capability expected when the space shuttle fleet retires
next year as currently planned. It also develops a heavy-lift rocket closely
based on the shuttle for missions to the Moon. Both variants of the fourth
option deliver astronauts to the Moon by the mid-2020s.
A fifth and
final option, dubbed "Flexible Path," would begin exploration beyond low Earth
orbit in the early 2020s, with lunar fly-bys, visits to Lagrange points and
near Earth objects, and Mars fly-bys. These events would occur at a rate of
about one per year, according to the document, with a possible rendezvous with
the moons of Mars or a human lunar return by the mid to late 2020s.
Flexible
Path includes three variants:
- Develop a
lighter version of the Ares V, which the summary describes as "the
most capable of the heavy-lift vehicles in this option."
- Develop a
heavy-lift rocket based on the U.S. Air Force's existing Evolved
Expendable Launch Vehicle. This option would dramatically reduce NASA's
role in launch vehicle development and operations. "It has an advantage of
potentially lower operational costs, but requires significant
restructuring of NASA," the report summary states.
- Develop a
directly shuttle-derived, heavy-lift vehicle that takes maximum advantage
of existing infrastructure, facilities and production capabilities.
Of the five
main options detailed in the summary, only the first and third do not feature
some level of outsourcing of astronaut transport to and from low Earth orbit to
entrepreneurial space firms.
"Commercial
services to deliver crew to low-Earth orbit are within reach," the document
states. "While this presents some risk, it could provide an earlier capability
at lower initial and lifecycle costs than government could achieve. A new
competition with adequate incentives should be open to all U.S. aerospace
companies."
The
document also states that giving responsibility for space transportation to the
private sector would allow NASA to focus on more challenging roles, "including
human exploration beyond low Earth orbit, based on the continued development of
the current or modified Orion spacecraft."
Elon Musk,
president of Hawthorne, Calif.-based Space Exploration Technologies, said in a
Sept. 8 teleconference with reporters that his company could have a commercial
crew transportation capability ready within three years of a contract award. He
said the cost of transporting astronauts to low Earth orbit would run about $20
million per seat, assuming four flights a year on the planned seven-passenger
Dragon.
"That's
about 40 percent of the Russian cost," he said, referring to the estimated $50
million cost-per-seat to fly U.S. astronauts on the Russian Soyuz capsule.
Under NASA's current plan, Soyuz will be the only means of transporting crews
to and from the space station following the shuttle's retirement until Orion
begins operations.
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