This year closed with a volley of
seemingly hopeful signs for what's termed by some as "NewSpace" - an
entrepreneurial spaceflight trajectory markedly different than NASA and its cabal of
mainstream aerospace contractors.
For example:
Item: The huge WhiteKnightTwo
mothership successfully lifts off into aerodynamic adulation at the Mojave
Air and Space Port, that it can serve as a carrier plane to support two-pilot,
six passenger suborbital SpaceShipTwo tourist operations for spaceliner
operator, Virgin Galactic.
Item: NASA awarded two fixed-price
"indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity contracts" collectively valuable at
about $3.5 billion - one to Orbital Sciences Corp. of Dulles, Va., and one to
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, Calif. - for commercial
cargo resupply services to the International Space Station.
Item: XCOR Aerospace of Mojave, Calif. successfully completed its first test
fire of the rocket engine designed to power its two-seat Lynx suborbital
vehicle to the edge of space. Meanwhile, Jules Klar of RocketShip Tours has
announced that his company is selling rides to the edge of space on Lynx for
$95,000 per flight.
Item: Bigelow Aerospace of North Las
Vegas continued to monitor though the year its Genesis 1 and Genesis 2 modules
placed into orbit July 2006 and June 2007. Both spacecraft remain in excellent
shape, with the private firm pushing forward on larger expandable structures
that can become habitable havens in Earth orbit.
It's the economy $tupid
But one big issue looms for NewSpace
next year, said Jeff Foust, an aerospace analyst, journalist and publisher, as well as
editor and publisher of the respected website, The Space Review. And
that topic of trepidation is the state of the economy.
"This is going to affect companies in
the industry in two ways. One, it's going to make it that much more
difficult for companies to raise the money needed to develop their
vehicles," Foust told SPACE.com.
"It won't directly affect companies
that are already self-funded or otherwise fully-funded - like Virgin
Galactic, SpaceX, Armadillo Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, etc. - but
those companies trying to raise tens of millions of dollars or more
to carry out their business plans will find that steep path to
funding has become even steeper.
Foust also noted another impact tied to the rocky economy - a potential
reduction in customer demand, particularly in space tourism. A whiplash
from the continuation of a deep recession in 2009, he said, may well be people
reconsidering tossing out $95,000 to $200,000 or more for
suborbital jaunts, or putting the trip off a few years - to a time when,
presumably, the economy recovers.
X factor
In his crystal ball gazing, Foust
said he expects that the coming year will be a year more of
incremental advances rather than breakthroughs in the NewSpace
field.
"In short, I think commercial space
will continue to have strong long-term prospects, but that 2009 will present
its share of challenges for the industry to overcome in order to realize
those prospects," Foust said.
Another "X factor" for commercial
space in 2009 that Foust flagged is the incoming Obama administration.
"During the general election, the
Obama campaign made some
positive statements about the importance of commercial space, especially in
the campaign's space policy issued in August. However, we'll have to wait
and see how exactly they will implement that...and what priority commercial space
issues will get among other pressing space policy issues, not to mention
overall policy," Foust observed.
Expect
the unexpected
Taking a
longing look at the economic uncertainty of the times is David Livingston, host
of The Space Show - a home for a bubbling cauldron of space experts that
fill the sound waves with talk radio and a streaming program of both solution and worry.
"Concerning
my civil and private space expectations for 2009, about all I can say at this
time is to expect the unexpected," Livingston said. "With the economy and
markets in flux, with Congress doing its best to spread fear, and with tight
money, I suspect capital acquisition efforts on the parts of some private
companies may find the going to be tough," he said.
Livingston
said that he is expecting the unexpected for most - if not all of 2009.
"Too much
is unknown or uncertain at this time to be sure of anything. By the way,
markets and money hate uncertainty. We need to get through this mess,
start our recovery, or at least stop with the fear propagation by members
of Congress and the press...and we need to see or at least reliably anticipate
stability returning to the financial and economic world," Livingston concluded.
Big plans
An ongoing success story in private space matters is that of John Carmack,
chief rocketeer of his Armadillo Aerospace team in Rockwall, Texas. Last
October, Armadillo bagged
$350,000 in prize money for winning Level One of the Northrop Grumman Lunar
Lander Challenge in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
In assessing 2009, a confident Carmack
sees winning Level Two of the lunar lander challenge.
Furthermore, "we are planning on
doing 'boosted hops' up to around a mile or so at our home base airfield once
the new [Federal Aviation Administration] amateur rocket regulations go into effect
in February," Carmack added. "We will be testing higher speeds going up and
down, and eventually trying an engine relight after a short descent under
drogue [parachute]."
In other Armadillo rocket milestones, Carmack said that they should be doing exhibition
races with multiple Rocket Racers. Also, he advised that a skydiver will ride
and jump off from one of the company's rockets.
"I hope to be flying at [New Mexico's] Spaceport America later next year, which
will give us supersonic flights and get close to space...but that is contingent
on a few other factors," Carmack told SPACE.com.
Time for patience
Jeff
Greason is head of XCOR Aerospace in Mojave, California - a leading private
entrepreneurial space group with an eye on the suborbital space market. In
putting a business-eye on the coming year, he signals a time for patience.
"During
2009, entrepreneurial space companies will continue working on their propulsion
systems, airframes, and all the other components necessary for successful
access to space," Greason explained. "So we will see engine tests, other
subsystem tests, and progress on vehicle construction and system integration."
But given
all that activity, Greason added: "We're unlikely to see any new systems enter
service in 2009. People should not find this disappointing. This is the
hard work that is necessary to make affordable spaceflight a reality, and it
will lead to first flights in 2010."
Spotlighting that next year will
likely become the "tipping" point in the emerging personal space flight
industry is Stuart Witt, general manager of Mojave Air and Space Port in
California.
Witt's end of the year message is
straightforward: The industry has an opportunity to expand to many locations
across the nation if operators are successful at Mojave.
"The business of being first in new
and exciting endeavors has its risks, but thank
goodness we have people willing to be creative and take the personal and
business risks which have such a positive effect on so many," Witt feels.
Witt contends that what's needed is
creativity, innovation and a long reach...all which has been missing from
national space policy for decades.
"As America
focuses on bailing out everyone who is on the brink of failure, thank God we
have places where failure is still an option in order for innovation to be
realized," Witt believes. "When you strip away a country's or individual's
ability to fail you take away their right to succeed. Let the natural forces of
accountability work for all."
Leonard
David has been reporting on the space industry for more than four decades. He
is past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society's Ad Astra and Space
World magazines and has written for SPACE.com since 1999.
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