Editor's
note: As NASA celebrates its 50th birthday today, the agency looks
back on a history of stunning successes while honoring those lost in its tragic
setbacks. Here, space commentator Jim Banke takes a look at what the future
might bring for America's space program in the 50 years to come.
CAPE
CANAVERAL, Fla. - As NASA marks its golden anniversary on Oct. 1, 1958, the
question is inevitably raised: What will the U.S. space agency be like another
50 years from now?
Officially
ask NASA managers and they'll tell you their only thinking as far ahead as the
return to the moon with Project Constellation and its Orion spacecraft and Ares
rockets - with a nod to the ultimate goal of landing humans on Mars.
Ask about
the specifics of going to Mars with humans and you learn that, officially, NASA
has eyes only for the moon right now, not that there's anything wrong with
that.
Unofficially,
as in off the record on deep background, every space cadet who works for NASA,
either directly for the agency or as a contractor, appears to have their own dream
of what
might be in 50 years.
Some
clearly have agendas, hidden or otherwise, while others relate pie in the sky
wishful thinking about a spaceship in every garage, a fusion generator in every
kitchen. Some are pessimistic and reflect in their vision their own bitter
feelings about how far we have not progressed since the heady days of Apollo.
It's clear
that no one has a good handle on the future, and that's probably a good thing.
Anyone who professes an all-knowing, set-in-stone vision of the future should
be kept at arms length unless they are clearly of divine origin.
NASA
Administrator Mike Griffin has his head on straight when it comes to predicting
the future. In a March 2007 essay for Aviation Week & Space Technology he
addressed the topic of "Human Space Exploration: The Next 50 Years."
"It is so
very easy to be completely wrong, since a variety of radically different
futures in spaceflight can be presumed with equal apparent credibility today,"
Griffin wrote. "The one thing of which we can be certain is that in trying to
envision the world of 2057, two generations in the future, we will be wrong."
Griffin's
words ring true, but a certain Jedi master from a popular film franchise said
it more simply: "Impossible to see, the future is."
During the
past few months world events have insinuated them into the world of spaceflight
and are sure to have some effect, as yet undefined. They include:
- The
unprecedented rise of the space program in the presidential election
rhetoric, which has candidates talking about extending
the life of the space shuttle program and injecting new money into
NASA's budget.
- Russia's adventures
with Georgia has Congress suddenly asking hard questions about our reliance on Soyuz
spacecraft at the International Space Station, a discussion that also
has implications for the Shuttle program.
- The
nation's financial crisis and what will likely result in billions of tax
dollars being paid out as a solution, making it more difficult for
Congress to do anything positive with NASA's budget.
So the
future of space in 50 years can't be foretold in detail, it's always in motion.
Sounds like it's time to take the plunge and offer some debatable ideas.
Some
Predictions
The one
thing we can predict with certainty is that by the year 2058 we will not have
spaceships capable of flying faster than light, despite the suggestion of
another science fiction franchise that predicts the invention of warp drive in
2063.
Now for the
uncertainty. Try this out for size, in 2058:
NASA is
still around and narrowly focused on exploration and the goal of extending
human presence throughout the solar system. The first humans have long since landed
on Mars and there is a thriving science colony near the moon's
south pole.
Construction
has begun on a radio telescope on the moon's far side and the lunar base has been
established for years as one of the nation's centers for excellence in fusion
and alternative energy research.
NASA probes
continue to reconnoiter the planets not only in our system, but with new
telescopes and imaging techniques we are exploring planet in other systems and
have discovered several Earth-like planets.
While proof
of life - ancient and bacteria-sized - exists throughout the solar system,
there is still no sign of intelligent life in the universe, not that NASA is
looking.
In fact, by
2058, the U.S. military's space program has evolved considerably and there the
ones charged with keeping on eye on the stars for any potential threat, whether
from intelligent life or accidental rock throwing.
It will be
the military, in the name of national security, that will develop some of the
more exotic and interesting spacecraft of the 21st Century, and will by 2058 be
close to achieving the goal of a single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane - if they
haven't already.
In the
meantime, the commercial space world by 2058 has become a major component of
the space program, bigger and busier and more productive than NASA and the
military combined.
Commercial
space will almost exclusively be who you turn to when you want to travel to or
from low-Earth orbit. The number of nations in the launch business or capable
of launching something into orbit will be surprisingly greater than in 2008.
Commercial
space tourism each year will provide hundreds of people the opportunity to
vacation in an orbiting hotel, launching from spaceports sprinkled throughout
the world.
Trips to
orbit the moon will be possible, and lunar hotels at the Sea of Tranquility may
not be out of the question.
(Please
note that we cannot guarantee a room with a window view of the Apollo 11 lunar
landing site at the Sea of Tranquility, which is surrounded
by a security gate and is considered off limits so no one disturbs Neil
Armstrong's and Buzz Aldrin's footprints.)
Suborbital
hops as thrill rides - popular in the first quarter of the century - will
become passe by 2058 as the space planes grow larger and become integrated with
the world's air traffic system so that 45-minute hops from Miami to Tokyo
become possible.
Along those
same lines, the cargo folks like FedEx and UPS also will embrace this
transportation mode for when it positively has to be on the other side of the
planet on the same day.
Half
Full
Look ahead
to 2058 and the details are unclear, but I am optimistic that we will continue
moving off the planet and into the universe.
When NASA
celebrates its 100th birthday, it will do so toasting successes and remembering
devastating setbacks. It will honor the brave astronauts who make the trip and
everyone else who makes it possible.
It will do
so recognizing countless new and unexpected benefits for all in medicine,
electronics, manufacturing, home improvement, entertainment and so much more.
We will
move off this planet and return to the moon, then go on to Mars. From there the
giant moons of Jupiter or Titan at Saturn look promising. There are asteroids
to explore as well.
And then
the rest of the galaxy awaits us, perhaps something to consider for the next 1,000
years.
Jim Banke is a veteran aerospace commentator
and consultant based in Cape Canaveral, Fla.
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