LEAGUE
CITY, TX - China's space program is about three decades from landing astronauts
on the Moon, but will make significant strides during that time, according to
one expert following the nation's human spaceflight efforts.
"They're
probably as close to the Moon as we are to Mars," space policy expert James
Lewis said of China Wednesday during the annual meeting
here of the American Astronautical Society (AAS). "They say that their goal is
a lunar base...[but] it's not a near-term possibility."
Lewis,
a senior fellow and director of technology policy at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, said China's lack of a sufficient heavy-lift launch
vehicle will require the nation to wait until the development of its Long March
6 rocket - which will follow the yet-to-be completed Long
March 5 booster - before a manned lunar flight can take place.
At
least three more missions are expected to follow China's successful Shenzhou
6 spaceflight - the country's second flight to carry astronauts and its
first to launch a two-person crew - which flew in October. Shenzhou
7 is slated to launch
three astronauts in 2007, with two more to flights expected before the
country's Shenzhou 10 mission delivers astronauts to a pair of linked orbital
modules from Shenzhou 8 and 9 by 2012, Lewis said.
"These
capsules, if they do link up, will form a space lab," Lewis said. "[China's]
goal is to build a permanent space station."
China's
Shenzhou spacecraft are based on the Russian Soyuz vehicle and consist of a
propulsion module, a crew compartment and an orbital module. But the Shenzhou
version is larger and can leave its orbital module - which carries its own
solar arrays and maneuvering jets - in space for extended periods.
The
fact that China selected a Soyuz model - which Russia routinely uses to ferry
new crews to the International Space Station (ISS) -for its Shenzhou spacecraft
could indicate some foresight of future international cooperation, though near-term
partnerships with the U.S. would be difficult due to current political climate,
Lewis said.
"China
is interested in its independent program and not in being a junior partner,"
Lewis said, adding that there are also security concerns due to the military
component of China's space program.
Shenzhou
spacecraft launch atop a Long March 2F rocket, though China space officials
have said that future Long March 5 boosters could launch up to 28 tons into
orbit with a lifting power comparable to Europe's Ariane
5 vehicle, he added.
But
China's manned expeditions are only part of its spaceflight ambitions to win
national prestige and demonstrate technological prowess.
The
China National Space Administration plans to launch its first Moon probe - dubbed
Chang'e 1 - in 2006, with landers and sample return spacecraft to follow by
2020. The initial Chang'e lunar orbiter will fly on a modified version of a
Chinese commercial communications satellite, indicating a smooth flow of
technology between commercial and research space industry, Lewis added.
While
Chinese space officials have said the Shenzhou 6 mission cost about $110
million - relatively cheap when compared to other national space programs -
Lewis said it's possible the flight cost up to three times that based on past
understatements of the nation's spaceflight costs.
However,
China does spend about one-half of 1 percent of its gross domestic product
(GDP) on its space program, and since the nation's GDP has risen 30 percent
since 2002 due to a booming economy, more funding is expected
"They
will have a lot more money and are willing to spend it," Lewis said. "It's going
to be a well-funded program."
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