WASHINGTON -- China appears ready to conduct a second pilotless test flight early this month of its experimental Shenzhou spacecraft, a step that may lead to that country's own space station.

The test flight of a Shenzhou 2 could take place as early as January 5, according to SPACE.com sources.

After circling Earth for 21 hours and chalking up 14 orbits, Shenzhou 1 landed in Inner Mongolia. That successful touchdown touched off speculation that China is earnest in wanting to become the third nation -- following Russia and the United States -- capable of lofting people into orbit.

While the U.S. has its astronauts, Russia flies cosmonauts and French space crew members have been tagged as "spacionauts;" China's future space travelers have already been dubbed "taikonauts" in some circles.

Test hops of the pilotless Shenzhou are seen as steppingstones to even grander projects, suggest several experts contacted by SPACE.com.

Shenzhou shakeout

The upcoming automated flight of a Shenzhou 2 is viewed as more important than the first test flight, said Chen Lan, an ardent China space watcher and software engineer in Singapore. He anticipates a longer flight, perhaps upwards of a week. That would allow a more complete shakeout of the Shenzhou system, which is comprised of an orbital module and entry module.

"The Chinese manned space program is ambitious, with Shenzhou as just the first step. I believe they will establish an independent space station and space transportation system during the next 10 to 15 years," Chen Lan said.

If the upcoming Shenzhou launch is fully successful, Chen Lan said a third automated flight could occur this year, and another in early 2002. "My guess is that China's first manned flight could be late 2002 or early 2003," he said.

Chen Lan said that Chinese researchers have done detailed work in all fields related to human spaceflight, from docking techniques to large space structures.

Spylab -- a military space station?

Phillip Clark, a British-based and long-time specialist in Soviet/Russian and China space prowess, said an expansion of the Chinese space effort is clearly underway.

Late in 2000, the first in a new series of remote sensing satellites was orbited. Also, the first two spacecraft of a new navigation system were deployed, Clark said. "Together with the activity in the manned program, this all points to a serious commitment to space by the Chinese," he said.

Clark said that China has a desire to be "taken seriously" as a major space power. It is a given that prestige is a major factor. But China has talked for a decade about human spaceflight, and always in the context of having their own space station, he said.

Chinese space planners must be thinking about the practical benefits from having humans in orbit, Clark said. Large-scale materials processing is one candidate, while another is military reconnaissance, he said.

China having an orbiting "Spylab" offers distinct advantages for that country.

To date, China has only obtained "snapshots" of select targets, in reconnaissance terms, via Earth-circling satellites. However, these satellites don't offer real-time, feedback capability. Having eyeballs in orbit, Clark said, along with powerful reconnaissance hardware, would allow immediate feedback to the ground about what can be seen from space.

"Additionally, I am sure that the only way that a [Chinese] space station program could be 'sold' to the government would be to have military as well as 'civil' applications, and photoreconnaissance is the most likely application," Clark said.

~

No copycat capsule

China's Shenzhou capsule appeared at first blush, at least to Western eyes, as a surplus Russian Soyuz, or a straight copy of that craft.

Not so, Clark said.

First, the Shenzhou is physically larger than Soyuz. It also totes extra solar panels and sports a differently designed forward module, Clark said. From the get-go, the Chinese have a spacecraft that can carry two to three, perhaps four people, the space analyst said.

If the January flight of Shenzhou is successful, Clark said, then a third pilotless test would likely follow. A fourth launch of a Shenzhou craft might carry a two-person crew into orbit, perhaps towards the end of 2001, or in the first half of 2002, he predicted.

Clark said that the first few piloted flights may well lead to the nose-to-nose docking of two crew-carrying spacecraft. Doing so would give China their first, albeit modest, space station.

Development is underway of a new Long March booster capable of blasting into orbit a small space laboratory around 2004-2005, Clark said.

Second Cold War

Charles Vick, a research analyst here for the Federation of American Scientists, said that China's ultimate aim is a manned space station, perhaps to supplement military needs. But time will tell, he adds.

Vick said that China's human spaceflight effort is stretched out and seems under-funded. "One does wonder if it is not also partially dependent on Western commercial satellite business for some of its economic support," he said.

Space budget pressures might mean more ambitious checkouts of spacecraft hardware are in the offing, Vick said.

A homegrown manned space program -- one that shows hardware reliability and hones their space piloting experiences -- is key if China is to ever be seriously considered as an international space partner.

Otherwise, before the Chinese space program fully matures, Vick said, other nations may have agreed to work together on more daring projects, like setting up a lunar base or human exploration of Mars.

Vick said that China's leadership must also come to terms with issues such as missile technology transfer, human rights, and nuclear nonproliferation before being accepted by other spacefaring nations.

Not doing so will cause China to fall behind the rest of the world and solely be seen as a space threat and, potentially, "a new second Cold War competitor," Vick said.