The loss of Columbia and its seven-person crew has amplified the inherent risk of space travel. How long before space shuttle astronauts once again wing spaceward and return from Earth orbit is unknown.

Caught in the aftermath of the tragedy are proponents of space tourism. Various studies over the years have found a growing hunger by the public for space travel. A moneymaking business of boosting off-the-street citizens off the planet was the forecast.

But given the Feb. 1 incident, has the dreamy vision of tourist-class spaceships turned into a marketing nightmare?

But what's needed, Wichman said, is a breakthrough vehicle for space tourism to become a viable industry.

Explaining that he is not bashing the space shuttle, Wichman continued by pointing out that "it's an old machine."

"We use techniques for taking it up that were designed out of the old ballistic missile era. We use techniques for bringing it down that have come from the Apollo era. I'm not saying that all of that shouldn't have been done. It has worked and it still works…most of the time," Wichman said.

The heartbreak of losing Columbia and its crew may be the event, or one of a series of events, that could help shape a vehicle geared for space tourism, Wichman contends.

"As long as everything was going along okay, there wasn't a lot of motivation to make that Herculean effort to come up with the new machine," Wichman said.

In June 2001, NASA footed the bill for the Futron Corporation, a consulting firm, to pin down space markets out for some 20 years. The $1.8 million study was completed late last year. Called the Analysis of Space Concepts Enabled by New Transportation -- or ASCENT for short -- the assessment underscored the promise of space tourism.

The Futron study found that public space travel, once it gets going, could possibly become a generator of launch demand during the second decade of this century.

"Obviously, we are saddened by what happened with the shuttle," said Derek Webber, Futron's program manager for the NASA ASCENT study. "It does reiterate that it's a dangerous business."

However, like the aftermath of airline crashes, "we all jump on a plane the next day, because there's an evident level or expected risk for certain kinds of ventures," Webber said. "You just move on. You try to improve what caused the problem and move on. And I think that's what will happen here."

In the post-Columbia world, Futron's space tourism analysis for the long-term in not likely to change, Webber believes. There is 20 years of gradual growth, with 60 orbital tourist flights a year by 2020. In addition, there will be tens of thousands of suborbital hops taken by pay-per-view voyagers, he said.

Even putting the breakup of Columbia behind us, the truth is that passenger space travel has never been close to becoming a true business. There remains much work to do.

"Space tourism is not going to happen the day after tomorrow. There's just too much infrastructure development that has to be put into place," said William Gaubatz, President of SpaceAvailable, LLC, based in Newport Beach, California.

Gaubatz is a professional rocketeer. A former McDonnell Douglas employee, he managed the Delta Clipper-Experimental (DC-X/XA) programs. This novel reusable vehicle made a succession of test hops and quick turnaround flights throughout the 1990s.

"What Columbia has emphasized again are the realities of the hazards that are there," Gaubatz said.

Loss of a large number of people, and the destruction of a national asset makes the tragedy all the greater and felt by people around the globe, Gaubatz suggests. "It shows our need to emphasize to the public the human side of space. It's more than all the great technology that's there. It is, in the end, all about human beings much more than just human doings," he said.

Gaubatz said future space vehicles must be borne of a different design philosophy. "If we're going to talk about commercial space travel, you are going to need to turn the equivalent of a shuttle around in hours, versus months," he said.

As far as steps toward public space transportation, there are those hoping NASA will push new technologies that might bring privately run space-liners closer to reality.

Still reeling from the Columbia catastrophe, NASA released February 18 a set of provisos for a next generation Orbital Space Plane (OSP) system.

The system -- which may include multiple vehicles -- would provide space rescue services that includes medical evacuation and emergency for no fewer than four crew members from the International Space Station (ISS). This capability should be available as soon as practical, but no later than 2010.

Another guideline is that the OSP system shall provide transportation capability for no fewer than four space travelers, to and from the ISS by 2012, if not sooner. Additionally, crew would not be required to wear space suits in the vehicle, but the craft should support crewmembers wearing suits if the situation warrants.

NASA envisions that the OSP systems for crew rescue and crew transport could be different versions of the same vehicle design. Initially, this next generation space plane would be pushed into orbit atop a toss-away booster.

In contrast to today's space shuttle, NASA stipulates that the OSP system should require less time to prepare and perform a mission and have increased launch probability. Also, the new space plane would have far greater on-orbit maneuverability than today's space shuttle.

"The Orbital Space Plane system will give us the flexibility needed to safely and efficiently get crew to and from orbit and to provide crew rescue and logistical support to the International Space Station," explained Frederick Gregory, NASA's Deputy Administrator.

"These initial requirements help to outline a comprehensive system that will significantly complement the capabilities of our existing space shuttle fleet," Gregory said in a NASA press statement.

While NASA is now pinning access to space advancements on the Orbital Space Plane, still unknown is what plans are underway in semi-secret corners of the U.S. Air Force. There are constant rumbles about the need for an unmanned space bomber.

Military space needs for rapid and repeated access to space are, in fact, more in line with how a commercial space liner should operate: Fast turnaround, few ground handlers, high reliability to meet mission needs, and high availability - it needs to be there when you need it.

Such top gun-like vehicles could well form a major backbone of a military space force. There are increasing calls by U.S. Department of Defense officials for space dominance and control, along with force application using space.

How the dance between NASA and the military plays out, and the hardware needed for building future space planes is yet to be fully identified.

Relying on NASA to help make a commercial dream machine for space tourists is likely to be a non-starter. That's the view of Jeff Greason, President of XCOR Aerospace in Mojave, California.

"For the commercial tourism market, you have to have very high flight rates. Also, there's need for high operability. Not only do you have to get the people and payload back. You have to get the vehicle back because that's your capital asset you are depending on," Greason said.

NASA's Orbital Space Plane has a set of mission needs different from a commercial enterprise that has to make money, Greason said. "If something positive could come out of this [the Columbia disaster]," he said, "perhaps it might be a realization in Congress and elsewhere that new ideas are needed and some competition is required to get those new ideas."

Greason said XCOR is making progress on its Xerus suborbital vehicle, designed specifically to take space tourists to the edge of Earth's atmosphere.

When is Xerus taking to the air? "There's no date as yet. We tell people money plus three years," Greason said. Concerning markets, a lot of individuals are interested in suborbital spaceflight, he explained.

"They fall into a class of people who are not particularly repelled by rational amounts of risk," Greason said. Ironically, he continued, if there's no romance nor perception of risk, the waiting lines for suborbital jaunts would be shorter.

Overall, for these space tourism advocates interviewed by SPACE.com, there's need to push forward and not to cower in the shadow of the failed Columbia mission.

That's also the message from Peter Diamandis, Chairman of the Zero-Gravity Corporation and founder of the X Prize - a $10 million purse to help spur commercial, ride-for-a-fee rocketry, first to suborbital heights then into Earth orbit.

"The X Prize Foundation remains committed to supporting our 24 teams from seven nations in their efforts to build the private spaceships that will take people to space in a frequent and safe fashion," he said.

Diamandis said that the X Prize Foundation is very cognizant of the measured risk involved in spaceflight, but remains firm in its belief that the risk is worth taking.

"We are able to safely travel on airliners today, because of the millions of airplane flights during the past 100 years that have given us the experience, confidence and engineering heritage required to achieve outstanding safety levels," Diamandis said.

"The X Prize remains committed to commercial efforts to open the space frontier, and support our teams in their efforts to build and fly vehicles and fulfill their dreams," Diamandis concluded.