The President
articulated the obvious -- a space program has to go somewhere. His redirection
of NASA back to the Moon in 15 to 20 years, then on to Mars, comes with both a
timeline and cost reasonable in this environment.
However, ambiguities
in his speech, such as omitting references to permanent lunar settlements,
NASA's subsequent "Exploration Requirements" focusing on
Mars and the media's
preoccupation with the glamour of a Mars mission a quarter-century away, have
muddled the vision.
All those factors
have made it seem as if all the unknown long-term costs of going to Mars must
be addressed near-term, confusing a Congress that has to implement the
redirection. Those factors also have increased the risk that even after
expending billions of dollars, we may be left 25 years from now with but one or
two flags-and-footprints missions to Mars and no permanent beachhead on either
the Moon or Mars.
Consequently, the
priority of the space community must be bringing the Moon-Mars focus back to
the near-term. The focus must be on programs that proceed in stages, each with
its own perceivable goal and associated cost estimates. Because those estimates
will be near-term they will be easier for Congress to ascertain and periodically
review. Staged, ratchet-like programs also ensure that infrastructure is left
in place should there be any pause or reduction in funding.
To create that
permanent beachhead, we must focus on the Moon. The Moon can be reached; the
base there can grow incrementally and return benefits -- all in a more
conceivable time frame. The most attractive feature of making the Moon the
first permanent off-world human outpost is its proximity to Earth. The
Moon is close, a
couple of days away; Mars is many months farther.
That proximity has
many advantages. As far less rocket power is required to reach the Moon than is
required for Mars, larger payloads can be sent or smaller, more affordable
vehicles can be used.
Close proximity
means more frequent trips, more people sent, and infrastructure more quickly
established. Because of the shorter trip
times, a focus on the Moon also is less risky than Mars. There is continuous access to a lunar
outpost, whereas Mars is reasonably accessible only once every two years. With unexpected discoveries or dangers, new
equipment or scientific instruments can be sent from Earth to the Moon
relatively quickly.
A growing lunar
facility would enable, decades sooner than a Mars base, a long list of
desirable outcomes:
- Lunar Resources: Finding, mining and
developing the techniques to use local resources (including energy, oxygen
and metals) to evolve toward self-sufficiency and produce fuels to reduce
the cost of space operations.
- Off-Earth Industrial Base: Development
of infrastructure and test facilities to support the industrialization /
commercialization of space and exploration of the solar system.
- Visibility: A lunar base overhead every
night would provide a tangible reminder of our space achievements and an
inspiration to further progress.
In addition, space
tourism is more likely to develop quickly with a nearby destination like the
Moon.
A Moon base also
would provide a low-gravity, isolated, stable, vacuum environment with no
magnetic field. Such an environment makes it possible to conduct cutting edge
physics research, including nuclear materials experiments we might prefer done
off-planet, medical and geriatric research, biological and genetic
investigations that might be dangerous to conduct on Earth and astronomy from
the far side of the Moon.
The Moon phase of
the Moon-Mars Initiative can be done in digestible steps that can, as funding
or interest fluctuates, be speeded up or slowed down with less risk of total
cancellation than a Mars-oriented program.
An early module
could be a habitation module, allowing extended crew stays. Later deliveries
could be rovers, building cranes, mining equipment, kilns for metallurgy,
telescopes for astronomy, medical labs and other scientific modules, and more
habitation modules. This staging would allow for both short visits by
scientific specialists and the gradual building of a permanent outpost.
All these activities
on the Moon will set the stage a quarter-century from now for continuing on to
Mars. By then we will have developed vastly improved propulsion technologies,
greater experiences working in space and on other worlds, better technology for
harsh off-world climates and a space infrastructure with many startup costs
amortized, so that the incremental cost of taking that long next step to Mars
would be much less daunting.
Most of all, unlike
after Apollo, we will have established a beachhead in space from which there
can be no retreat.
Jeffrey Liss is a
Senior Vice President of the National Space Society.