As the
Pentagon formulates its 2008 budget request, it is weighing several different
options for meeting its goal of developing the ability to strike targets around
the world within an hour, according to congressional aides.
One option
is to press forward with the concept of placing non-nuclear warheads on its
submarine-launched Trident missiles. However, that idea encountered resistance
from some members of Congress during the 2007 budget cycle. While there are
other options under consideration that could have an easier time winning
congressional approval, some of those options might require more development
work, which would prevent them from being available as early as a conventional
Trident missile, the aides said.
Alternatives
to the conventional Trident concept include shorter range submarine-fired
missiles as well as long-range rockets that could be launched from bases inside
the United States other than ICBM fields, the aides said.
The
Pentagon requested $127 million for work on the conventional Trident concept in
2007, but Congress provided only $25 million for prompt global purposes. The
2007 Defense Appropriations Act allocates $5 million to the National Academy of
Sciences to conduct a study on possible solutions for the prompt global strike
mission from the near-term solutions to long-term approaches. That study, which
is due back to Congress May 15, must take into account military and political
issues associated with the various options.
The
remaining $20 million is designated for the U.S. Navy to spend on development
work necessary for a variety of other unspecified global strike options. The
service is not permitted to focus on Trident until completion of the National
Academy of Science report.
The 2007
Defense Authorization Act also requires a report on the conventional Trident
concept. The report, which is due Feb. 1, must be prepared in consultation with
the U.S. Secretary of State, and must cover:
- Scenarios
in which a conventional sea-launched ballistic missile could be employed.
- The
rationale for rejecting other options for prompt global strike.
- A
detailed cost analysis broken down by fiscal year.
- The
adequacy of intelligence capabilities needed to support use of such
weapons.
- The
implications for ballistic missile proliferation if the United States were
to go forward with a sea-launched conventional ballistic missile.
- The
implications for the U.S. missile defense systems if other countries were
to use similar systems.
- How to
deal with the ambiguity caused by using the same ballistic missile for
nuclear and conventional payloads.
Proponents
of the conventional Trident concept say it offers a different paradigm from the
use of nuclear-tipped ICBMs -- one in which the military would seek uses for the
weapon, rather than hope it is never used.
While the
military has a variety of assets in its arsenal that are capable of striking
targets around the world, including tactical aircraft, bombers and cruise
missiles, basing constraints slow the Pentagon's ability to hit a target that
could move relatively quickly, according to Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright,
commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
"The
difficulty here for prompt global strike is [that] the adversary may not choose
to act near our bases or our patrol areas," Cartwright said during a March 29
hearing with the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee. "And if
that's the case, and we're dealing with targets that are associated with
weapons of mass destruction, command and control, terrorist-type leadership
targets, these targets tend to be fleeting. They don't present themselves for
long periods of time."
While the
conventional Trident concept has received its strongest support from Republican
members of Congress like Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), chairman of the Senate
Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, the concept faces opposition from
members of both major U.S. political parties.
During
floor debate on the appropriations bill Aug. 3, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska),
chairman of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, said he is worried
that the launch of a conventionally armed ballistic missile at a U.S. enemy could be misinterpreted by other countries as a launch of a nuclear warhead
toward their territory.
Current
intelligence and decision-making timelines are not well suited to the use of a
weapon that would strike its target within an hour and could not be called off,
Stevens said.
"This
capability would offer the opportunity for risky, even reckless strikes, rather
than deliberate, clearly thought-out action," Stevens said.
Proponents
of the conventional Trident concept say that the system could be operational
before the end of this decade. However, if the Pentagon believes it will not be
able to overcome the opposition to the Trident concept on Capitol Hill, and is
willing to wait longer to satisfy its desire for prompt global strike, it could
ramp up its investment in research and development projects like the Army's
Advanced Hypersonic Weapon, the congressional aides said.
The
Advanced Hypersonic Weapon is envisioned as an unmanned vehicle that leaves the
atmosphere briefly before flying back towards Earth like an aircraft during the
majority of its flight, making it less likely that it would be mistaken for an
ICBM, the aides said. The system could launch from a U.S. base in Diego Garcia
in the Indian Ocean or Guam in the South Pacific.
The vehicle
is envisioned as traveling 6,000 kilometers within 35 minutes, according to an
Army document.
While the
Army's Space and Missile Defense Command has conducted research into an
Advanced Hypersonic Weapon, it has not funded the effort on a level necessary
for a flight test, the aides said.
Another
type of project that could be funded as an alternative to the conventional
Trident to avoid confusion between the launch of an ICBM and a conventional
warhead could involve using submarines to launch shorter-range ballistic
missiles, the aides said.
Another
option is developing a warhead that could be placed on top of a small space
launch vehicle, and launching the weapon from a military base other than its
ICBM fields, the aides said. However, Congress already has expressed resistance
to this concept, and in 2004 directed the Pentagon to cease its work on
designing weaponized payloads under the Falcon program.