An armada of air, sea and
space intelligence assets are being deployed above and around North Korea in
anticipation of the imminent test of a 105 ft. Taeop-Dong 2 Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile disguised as a satellite launch vehicle.
The timing of the test is
unknown, but expected soon. Key North Korean support hardware has been spotted
moving into place around the launch site and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il
visited the launch facility February 25.
Iranian hardware, including
possible satellite components, are part of the North Korean test. Many of the
same flight test objectives for demonstrating ICBM flight and guidance can be
duplicated with a space launch, where the velocity of the upper stage is
allowed to reach 17,500 mph.
Obama adminstration
officials say any kind of test will immediately result in strong new sanctions
against the North.
"I am worried about
the threatened North Korean test," Rep. Jane Harmon (D-CA) chairman of the
homeland security subcommittee on intelligence and risk assessment, said in Washington
February 24. "This is very serious so it is important that the
administration pay keen attention to the region," she said in an NBC
interview.
This illustrates the
necessity of monitoring how North Korea and Iran act in tandem, as well as
individually where such critical weapons developments are involved.
As an added caution,
elements of the still embryonic U.S. Missile Defense System have been activated
and turned over to U.S. Strategic Command for possible use during the North
Korean test.
These include assets such
as the massive Cobra Dane radar in Alaska, a large X-band radar in Japan, a
floating X-band off Hawaii and Aegis Surveillance and Tracking destroyers in
the waters off North Korea.
There are also Aegis
"engagement" cruisers and destroyers with Standard
missile interceptors at strategic points along the most likely ground
tracks. And should the flight move onto a trajectory hostile to the U.S. or
Japan, the North Korean vehicle could be shot down by an Aegis ship.
U.S. Navy crews are being
trained up on potential real life scenarios to be ready for what ever North
Korea does.
"North Korea has
successfully launched [large] missiles in the past but the third stage has
never been successful," says Harmon. "Once they are successful with a
third stage they would have a missile that could reach the western U.S. This is
very serious and so it is critical that this administration play keen attention
to this test activity.
"This combined with an
advanced missile industry and a nuclear bomb making capability, forms a North
Korean recipe that is truly scary," Harmon said. "And intelligence is
the key to figuring it all out."
Rarely have so many
military space intelligence capabilities been brought to bear on what North
Korea is up to. With the Kim regime teetering the test could be the trigger
point major leadership shifts in the country.
"We are watching
closely with all the assets we have," says Marine Maj. Bradley Gordon of
the U.S. Pacific Command. "We have all sorts of sensors deployed around
the area."
These assets, linked with
control centers, can maximize the U.S. and Japanese intelligence gained from
the flight when it occurs.
Air and space based
intelligence assets include continuous electronic intelligence patrols by
advanced U-2 aircraft flying at 70,000 ft. and EC-135 Rivet Joint type aircraft
flying lower with the hope of capturing North Korean voice transmissions,
specifically involved with leadership discussions and decision making regarding
the launch including the countdown. Special optically equipped C-135 and P-3
aircraft are in the area to image the climbing vehicle when it does lift off.
It is possible the North
Koreans could launch smaller rockets to temporarily distract American assets.
This was done in July, 2006 when the Koreans were able to "penetrate
seams" in U.S. intelligence capability. Defense officials say measures
have been taken to avoid a repeat of that shortfall.
In space, three or four
Advanced KH-11 optical and infrared spacecraft pass over the launch site about
four times a day and four times at night, while imaging birds from Japan and
Europe do the same.
Major U.S. Lacrosse radar
imaging satellites watch the site at night, as do new European and Japanese
radar spacecraft aided by powerful change detection software that can
characterize differences in activity over a few hours.
Further out, two or three
U.S. Air Force Defense Support Program (DSP) infrared scanning missile warning
satellite continually watch the area for the flash that would signify a launch.
They are now also aided by two Space Based Infrared Highly Elliptical payloads
that could provide more advanced data on the climbing North Korean launcher.
With all of these assets
working to characterize the North Korean launch, the U.S. will have the data
necessary to decide whether to shoot it down should the long range Taeop-Dong 2
ballistic missile deviate from a space launch trajectory toward a ballistic
path toward Japan or Alaska or Hawaii.
Although U.S. and Japanese
military commanders have practiced that scenario, U.S. analysts doubt that will
be the case. But at the least the test will provide useful experience on
American command and control, courtesy of Pyongyang.
The U.S. and Japanese
response will also "send a message" to the Hermit Kingdom that the
U.S. takes nothing for granted in dealing with the teetering government of the
ailing Kim Jong-Il.
Analysts believe the
vehicle will eventually be capable of delivering a small nuclear weapon and is
capable now of delivering a biological payload as a terror weapon.
The 105 ft. two stage
configuration of the Taeop-Dong 2 has a range of 10,000 km. (6,200 mi.) and the
three stage version has 15,000 km. range (9,315 mi.) The two stage version
could also launch a 300-500 lb. class satellite.
On February 25, Kim, still
frail from a stroke, visited the Musudan-ni
Launch Facility that sits along the rugged central North Korean coast
facing the Sea of Japan. It is the same site used for a failed
test in July 2006 when the vehicle nose shroud separated to early
destroying the vehicle.
"New imagery taken on
February 17, 2009 provided by DigitalGlobe, shows increased activity at the
Musudan-ri launch site," says DigitalGlobe. The new launch center at
Tongh'ang dong on the northern west coast is not complete and so the launch
site at Musudan-ri is being prepared for one more launch.
The imagery was taken
during the visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to China and South Korea
where she outright confirmed that intelligence showed test preparations are
underway, saying any flight would be "unhelpful" to the lessoning of
tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
"Musudan-ri is
approximately 28 miles or (45 km.) kilometer) from the nearest railhead at
Kilchu. Rocket components and in fact all supplies to the Musudan-ri launch
site must arrive over a rough dirt road that is probably not all-weather. Large
bulk supplies can be shipped from the port of Kimch'aek to a nearby wharf at
Tongh-dong," says DigitalGlobe
An analysis of the site was
performed with the aid of Global
Security.Org.
Imagery obtained at 60 cm.
(2 ft.) resolution by the DigitalGlobe Quickbird satellite shows the facility
to be equipped with a modern and enlarged horizontal processing facility, large
static engine test stand, and launch pad itself.
Although not the type of
facility the North would used as an operational war fighting base, there are
indications the North Koreans are constructing such facilities for that
elsewhere.
Other intelligence assists
have found what appear to be hardened silos for vertical launch ICBM or IRBMS
under construction elsewhere in the country.
Copyright 2009 SpaceflightNow.com,
all rights reserved.

