No nation relies on space for its security
more than the United States -- none is even close. Both economically and
militarily, loss of space capabilities would prove disastrous. America's
economy, and along with it the world's, would collapse. Its military would
hunker down in defensive crouch while it prepared to withdraw from dozens of
then-untenable foreign deployments.
For
these reasons, the United States Air Force is charged with ensuring reliable
space access and capabilities in peace, and in defending space assets and
operations in conflict. As a martial organization, it looks to military means for
achievement of its assigned ends. And so it should.
To date the Air Force
has been hamstrung in its pursuit of weapons in space by a combination of
policy angst over the possible impact on foreign relations, Cold War legal
entanglements, and the misapplied logic of nuclear deterrence. Moreover, a
sense that the realm of space should somehow be kept pure, free of atavistic
human contamination, pervades the opposition.
All of these arguments
are easily countered and have been refuted at numerous forums. But
the core arguments for weapons in space are -- or ought to be -- centered
on two themes. First, the United States is the world's hegemon, like it or not,
and as such it is expected to provide leadership in the world community, provide
a globally more-beneficial economy along with reduced incidences and intensity
of conflict and war, and to maintain its relative power.
Second,
the old American way of war, in which problems overseas are ignored until they
spill over into direct conflict with its interests, requiring a massive and overwhelming intervention, is gone.
The 21st century American military instead
relies on high-tech intelligence, global presence, stealth, and
precise and deadly engagements that limit collateral damage and casualties.
Such is the new reality. Transformation of the armed services has crossed a
threshold of no return. Without guaranteed access to space, and the
capacity in war for space dominance, the new American way of war is not viable.
Consider
this analogy. Imagine assigning the U.S. Navy the mission of protecting the
nation's interests at sea -- indeed, to ensure that access to the high seas is
unhindered, and that those who might contest American access to traditionally
and legally open waters are denied the ability to do so -- but to accomplish
this mission without any capacity to apply violence to, in or from the sea. The notion is ludicrous, despite
the fact that no state today has the capacity to challenge the American Navy at
sea, and no nation is developing such a capacity.
While there are
numerous diplomatic, economic and informational means to accomplish such a
task -- and all should be pursued -- these are not within the Navy's area of
expertise, and so it should not receive the mission. The point is simple. The
arguments against space weapons should not be centered on the correctness of
the Air Force's desire to pursue technologies that lead to weaponization, but
on the propriety of the assignment.
It should also be
recognized that during the modern era's most auspicious periods of peace and
prosperity, the international community was led by a liberal hegemon, whose
military power was globally dominant on the oceans and locally dominant on the
ground where it chose to fight. Air and space power -- heavily used by today's
Navy -- are the prevailing globally dominating military capabilities, enabling
local ground power superiority at the time and place of America's choosing.
In preparation for an
eventual transformation to a space-heavy military force structure, it is
prudent to ask what would such a force look like, and what would be the
political ramifications of its deployment? Broadly imagined, any transition to
a military that included significant space-based weapons, capable of engaging
assets in space and a limited number of high-value, fleetingor heavily
protected targets would come at a stiff price. Any envisioned space weapons
system would be very, very expensive.
The cost would come not
from social or educational budgets, but from existing defense allocations. In
other words: fewer performance aircraft, fewer naval surface
combatants, and fewer troops and armored vehicles -- a lot fewer. These
conventional systems would still carry the bulk of violence projected abroad
for the foreseeable future, but should space weapons be properly designed and
judiciously employed to pre-emptively and preventively constrain violent
opposition to U.S. security concerns, the need for conventional forces around
the globe will be considerably reduced.
As such, a space-heavy
force structure, while adding to the deadly concentration of power that is
implicit in the transformation model, will not be a threat to the security
interests of other states in the same manner that an increased conventional
force might.
The United States will
retain the capacity to intervene with violence anywhere in the world, at a moment's
notice, but it will have atrophied its capacity to invade and hold territory. A
direct threat to the sovereignty of foreign states will have abated, but not
the capacity to retaliate against or punish those states that oppose U.S. interests.
For example, the second
war in Iraq was won quickly, brilliantly in fact, by a transformed American
military with far fewer personnel than could have been imagined just a few
years ago. The occupation and democratization of Iraq has not gone well, or at
least not as well as anticipated. The smaller, deadlier force that swept
through Iraq and toppled a government is poorly constructed to pacify
territory, and so clarion calls for more troops are heard daily.
But what is more
threatening to the many states of this world: a U.S. military force designed to push
violence forward quickly, but that cannot sustain long-term, broad-area
application of violence, or one that is slower, less-accurate, more broadly
devastating, and designed to take and hold territory?
If space weapons are
used capriciously or arbitrarily, then certainly they will be part of an
expensive military build-up that hastens the demise of the United States. But
if they are the military foundation of an effort to ensure commercial and
peaceful access to space for all nations, as is the current U.S. military
dominance on the seas and in the air, then space weaponization may come to be
seen as a global public good.
Once again, strategy
matters. The vision that America has for itself and the world cannot be
achieved without dominance in space. Without the capacity to research, develop,
test and then, if necessary and efficient, deploy
weapons that operate to, in and from space, the lynchpin of military
transformation may be lost.
Everett
Dolman is an associate professor of comparative military studies at the School
of Advanced Air and Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base, Montgomery, Ala. Dr.
Dolman also is the author of Astropolitik:
Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age (Frank Cass, 2002) and
The Warrior State: How Military
Organization Structures Politics (Palgrave-Macmillan, 2005).