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Star-Crossed Orbits: Inside the U.S. - Russia Space Alliance

by James Oberg

"...Over the last half-century, the dynamics of the Russian-American space competition have powered the space programs in both of these countries and in dozens of their allies. Any consideration of how this has happened, and what forms this relationship will take in the twenty-first century, needs to understand the nature of the "engine."

One widespread, overwhelming, and fundamental misconception about this relationship still stands in the way of understanding it and successfully predicting future trends. Space activities in one country, we are told, influence the planning of space activities in the other country, and vice versa. This is what engineers call a "feedback loop."

In practical terms, however, this is not true now and never was. Mistakenly believing it to be true has led the space programs in both countries to unfounded fears,enthusiastic wild goose chases, time-consuming detours, and heartbreaking setbacks, all at great expense.

What, then, does drive this feedback loop? What foreign forces influence a nation’s policies? We only have to look back on the dynamics of the past few decades to see the real driving principle ..."

-- from the Introduction of "Star-Crossed Orbits"

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Welcome to the premiere of the Space Library, the SPACE.com destination dedicated to showcasing the newest and finest space-related non-fiction books and films currently available.

We're kicking off the Space Library with a preview of James Oberg's newest book, Star-Crossed Orbits: Inside the U.S.-Russian Space Alliance.

Oberg, a former space engineer, has been a consultant for ABC News and United Press International. He has also written for SPACE.com. He is the author of 10 books, including Red Star in Orbit, the classic look into the workings of the former Soviet Union's space program.

oberg_Q&A_011207

 

SPACE.com: With regards to space exploration, are Russia and the United States closer than they've ever been, or is it all just PR?

James Oberg: It's more than PR, it's a matter of absolute mutual interdependence. We designed the ISS on purpose to make it impossible to operate without the Russians, and the Russians know it. Meanwhile, practically the entire Russian space program -- plus tidy profits for top officials -- are funded from the West, a cash flow they don't want to interrupt for now. If they ever again get rich enough to fund their own space program themselves, we'll need them and they won't need us and that's worth worrying about.

It's a trying time for space exploration, especially as funding will be diverted for defense needs. How big an impact will this have on space exploration?

I'm a 'hawk' on space as a critical element of future national strength -- it's not idle curiosity, or aesthetics, or entertainment, it's a theatre of operations that I'm convinced we must master in order to have a shot at overcoming future natural and human challenges to our civilization. We 'save money' today at the expense of future danger. But just spending money isn't enough, it's got to be on efforts that answer questions and enhance capabilities.

How will NASA chief Dan Goldin's retirement impact our relationship with the Russia space agency?

The Russians had figured out years ago how to get what they wanted from Goldin, and what his motivations were. They had a lot clearer view than most Americans, then or now. Now they have a new regime to figure out.

Goldin's successor, Sean O'Keefe, seems intent on keeping NASA and related International Space Station costs down. Will that impact Russia's struggling space industry?

The main struggle within much of Russia's space industry is where to store the boxes of cash flowing in from the West, although RSC-Energia is one glaring exception, and that's because Rosaviakosmos is starving them into submission. With all NASA's expansion plans on hold, Russia is in the driver's seat regarding commercialization of expanded ISS capabilities, whether it be extra Soyuz missions, new Russian modules, whatever. Russia's current challenge is to replace their aging space workforce, and Western money combined with a resurgent influence in a 'russified' ISS will help.

Who are your heroes, both current and from the past history of space exploration?

The technical leadership of Korolyov (who single-handedly sparked the 'Space Race') and von Braun (who showed he could accept other people's good ideas if they were better than his) are inspirational, all the more so in light of the current lack of equivalent figures. One of the brightest minds I've ever encountered is Buzz Aldrin, whose thinking has always been at least twenty years ahead of everybody else's, and he knows it -- that's both a blessing and a curse.

What is the most beautiful aspect to space?

Its history isn't written yet, it's the ultimate 'blank slate'. Literally anything can happen out there, and probably will. It's the ultimate 'surprise generator' and a challenge to anybody's attempts to establish a stable 'status quo'.

If you controlled a $1 billion foundation, what research effort would you fund?

This century's central technological challenge will be the deliberate human intervention in our planetary climate, both to repair inadvertent human influences and to forestall or mitigate the even more frightening natural processes, that range from normal temperature variations to local geological/meteorological catastrophes to external threats from rogue fluxes of mass and energy. How and why this will be done, and the ethics and politics of it, may be critical to the survival of our nation, our culture, and even our biosphere, and needs massive research. Space operations are a key ingredient of the mix of tricks we're going to need, and need badly, a lot sooner than we realize.

Why should we spend money on space exploration over research into deadly diseases?

False dilemmas like this one just pit entrenched bureaucracies against each other, and make good 'theatre' but the sparks cast very little light. The Universe is the ultimate in 'deadly diseases', and there are hazards lurking out there that the planet needs immunization against, or repair from the ravages of, so spaceflight is meta-medicine on a planetary scale.

What is the most vexing question in modern space exploration?

How can we overcome the continuous challenge to face reality rather than embrace comfortable self-delusions and short-term political advantages. More ferocity on behalf of safety versus convenience, and 'truth' rather than 'belief', is the only reliable foundation for operating in an environment intent on killing you in a thousand known and unknown ways. As the bumper sticker says, 'God forgives, man forgives, nature never.'

What is your dream job?

This one.


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