WASHINGTON Two recent launch failures are casting a cloud over the civil and commercial use of the Russian Proton booster. But engineers in both the Russian space agency as well as the design bureaus that build rocket components are racing to restore the heavy lift launcher to full service.
The veteran rocket was originally created more than 30 years ago to carry cosmonauts, but is mainly used today to launch Russias large governmental payloads, as well as commercial satellites. While a Kazakhstan-imposed ban on the rockets use has been partially lifted to allow the International Space Station module to ride a Proton aloft next March or April, the commercial versions remain grounded.
How long those commercial vehicles remain on the launch pad will help shape the character of the early 2000 commercial space race. If that delay should stretch far into next year, other rocket makers might take advantage of the delay and the doubt it raises to sell their wares. The fight for market share again pits the two largest U.S. rocket builders in competition -- Boeings Sea Launch against International Launch Services'/Lockheed Martins Proton
So where does the Proton stand in its return-to-flight efforts? Commercial marketer International Launch Services (ILS) tells space.com that they arent worried about an extended stand-down. But industry analysts suggest that quality control problems at the rockets assembly centers have yet to be solved, threatening not only the commercial rocket's use but also the safety of any payload booked on the big booster.
Beyond the issue of the launch failures, the rocket's builders also have been planning a series of upgrades, which if successful might give new wings to the old bird.
Two failures threaten schedule
The Protons problems stem from a series of 1999 launch failures that triggered internal reviews of the rockets production and manufacturing procedures. Of the last four Proton launches, two failed. On July 5th, a Proton malfunctioned shortly after liftoff sending its Russian military satellite payload and rocket stages crashing down onto Kazakhstan near the its Baikonur launch site.
An investigation team later discovered that a faulty weld was responsible for the failure in one of the rockets second stage engines. The weld gave way during the rockets ascent, engineers found, which triggered an explosion that destroyed the stage in flight.
At the time, a change in manufacturing procedures was believed sufficient to return the rocket to flight service. But a second launch, which failed October 27th, also was triggered by a malfunction of the second stages engines.
The rockets builders -- design bureaus Khrunichev and Energia -- quickly joined an intergovernmental investigation team headed by Vladimir Utkin. The team delivered an interim report to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on November 17th. The team also ordered a series of tests of Proton second stage engines to gather more data. The tests were to be completed in early December.
Return-to-flight first for government payloads
In the meantime the government of Kazakhstan lifted a ban on the rockets use to allow only the space stations service module to be launched in late spring. But while that flight would help put the station project back on its own revised schedule, the effects on the commercial and other government launches wasnt as clear. One additional launch, the Garuda 1 satellite aboard a commercial ILS Proton was pushed from a mid-November launch date into sometime next year.
A second Proton, this one owned by the Russian government, was to launch the Seasat satellite. A third vehicle, also an ILS Proton, was to lift the CD Radio 1 satellite. Both are slated for early next year. These were delayed indefinitely. When the partial ban is completely lifted, the Russians announced government payloads, and not commercial launches, will have priority. So where does this leave the commercial missions?
ILS spokesperson Julie Andrews told space.com that there was sufficient flexibility in the schedule to absorb a limited standdown.
"Only the Garuda launch will be affected by the October failure," Andrews said. "We expect to resume commercial launches once the Russian failure investigation board concludes and our independent Failure Review Oversight Board concurs with the findings."
That report, Andrews said, was expected by mid-December. There has been no delay in Proton manufacturing, she added, since the rockets are only built on order for satellite customers.
Safety in numbers?
But assuming that the commercial launches and government payloads can be accommodated by the final revised launch schedules, will users have confidence in the Proton? Analysts point to quality control problems as the core of the Protons recent failures. Specifically they look to the assembly procedures at the plant of second stage rocket engine builder, design bureau Voronezh. The final assembly of the rocket components at the Baikonur Cosmodrome is also suspect.
"At the Cosmodrome there have been some discussion of sand having gotten into the propellants," rocket expert and analyst Charles P. Vick told space.com.
Such contaminants have plagued missiles and rockets prepared at Baikonur by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces in the past, making a similar set of problems with the Protons engines suspect. But Vick pointed to flaws in the engines critical welds as a greater problem with the launch vehicles.
"They found definite evidence of aluminum grains from that first (July) failure and the second one, too," Vick explained. He suggested that the flaws may have been going on through the Protons entire flight history.
"This type of failure history may go back to the start of the Proton during the lunar race," he suggested. Standard test firings of a rocket engine from each production batch should have uncovered the troubles. "But in this case, the flaw didnt show up."
The Russian Space Agency has now ordered removal of all remaining Proton engines from the batch that contained the units used in the July and October mishaps. According to Vick, seven Proton rockets were affected by the engine replacements. A new turbopump design is also being fitted to the new engines and the complete units are to be installed in the rockets for use in launches next year.
The new pump design, plus more stringent procedures may be the way the Proton can be returned to flight with greater confidence, he suggested. As it turns out, Vick said that the new pumps already had been in the planning stage before the recent failures.
Vick also said that one Proton might be launched without a payload before the vehicle carrying the space station module is flown. This would help to prove the Protons troubles have been solved at last, he suggested.
The issue of ultimate safety, not only to the satellite payloads aboard the Protons, but to the surrounding Kazakhstan population, is significant. According to Vick, unlike western launch sites and other commercial rockets, the Protons launched from Baikonur do not carry destruct systems to blow them up during launch if a malfunction arises.
"There is no range safety operation there similar to that conducted in the West," Vick said. Without a destruct system on-board, a malfunctioning rocket could fall out of the sky uncontrolled -- which is basically what happened in July and October. "That is a clear-cut safety issue that the recent Proton failures have re-confirmed once again, " said Vick.
Who has most to gain from a Proton delay?
There is always Arianespace, which sells versions of the Ariane 4 and 5 that compete with the ILS launchers. Using state-of-the-art manufacturing techniques and a modern launch site in Kourou South America, Arianespace has been quick to try and take advantage of any U.S. rocket makers delays this year, especially those that occurred with the Lockheed Martin Atlas 3.
Boeings Sea Launch project also sells a three-stage Zenit rocket similar in size and capability as the Proton. When commercial customers balked at being the first to ride the un-tested rocket last spring, the Sea Launch group flew a successful test flight without a payload to show the launch vehicles dependability. The result was followed by a successful commercial launch last October.
A second commercial customer is to ride a Sea Launch rocket late next month, blasting off from its ocean-based launch pad. The project is gradually increasing its launch capability, aimed at a maximum nine to 12 launches per year that could be accommodated by its ocean platform system.
Anything that would delay the Proton could serve to make the Sea Launch project, by comparison, look more commercially attractive. And what a change that would be from just a year ago. At that time, with no Sea Launches yet conducted, the idea of firing a large rocket from an ocean platform looked pretty risky to some in the space transportation community. Just a few failures later, its the workhorse veteran that must now regain the confidence of its users.
In the space launch business, it remains an axiom that youre only as good as your last liftoff.
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