WASHINGTON – The office that regulates U.S. space transportation is forecasting slower growth in commercial rocket flights this year, but still sees the nation as increasing its share of the lucrative space launch business.
"We have had some failures, and it’s still an evolving technology," said Patricia G. Smith, associate administrator for Space Transportation at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
But Smith’s office, which released its review of 1999 and forecast for the first half of 2000 Tuesday predicted increased space launch business for U.S. firms. "While it’s not likely to be as robust as 1999, we still expect to see growth," Smith said.
More than 50 launches planned worldwide
In data released Tuesday at an FAA-sponsored space launch conference in Arlington, Virginia, the agency forecast 54 total space launches between January and June 2000 -- including NASA, military and commercial, as well as suborbital flights for science experiments. U.S. rocket makers planned to conduct 25 of those flights. Russia was forecast to launch 15 vehicles, including crucial return-to-flight missions for the workhorse Proton booster.
Payloads for the Russian rockets were to include communications, navigation, intelligence and meteorological satellites.
The European Ariane 4 was to fly five times with commercial satellite payloads. The larger Ariane 5 rocket was to be launched on three flights orbiting four communications satellites.
China planned to launch two Long March rockets during the first six months of the year, carrying communications and meteorological spacecraft.
Japan was to launch its small Muses M-5 booster with a science payload.
India has indicated plans to make its first flight of the commercial GSLV booster during the second quarter.
U.S. sees 26-percent share of business
For the period October 1999 to June 2000, the FAA projected the U.S. would have a 26-percent share of commercial launches; with Europe holding a 41-percent share, Russia 22 percent and other international launches 11 percent of the market during the period.
The agency also projected revenues for the period January 1995 through June 2000 at $11.2 billion for commercial space transportation. U.S. launch providers were expected to earn 39 percent of these revenues, or $4.4 billion; with Europe generating 37 percent, or $4.1 billion.
During the same period, Russia was to earn 16 percent ($1.8 billion) and China five percent ($500 million) in revenue.
1999 saw depressed market
The FAA review of the year that just ended saw 17 U.S. licensed space launches generating $851 million in revenue. There were 36 commercial space launches worldwide during 1999 generating $2.2 billion in sales.
The U.S. launches were broken down as:
-- 13 launches for commercial clients worth $672 million
-- two launches for the U.S. government worth $94 million
-- one operational Sea Launch flight worth $85 million.
Revenue generated by U.S. military and classified launches was not included.
Half of all commercial space launches during 1999 were to send satellites to low Earth orbit. These launches, of satellites such as Globalstar and Iridium, were a major shift in commercial payloads. Prior to 1997 there were only two commercial low orbit flights per year, with the majority of rockets carrying large telecommunications satellites headed to geostationary orbit.
The trend in smaller, low orbit satellites and payloads was expected to continue in 2000 and 2001. But while the FAA predicted that the large satellites comprised a shrinking part of the space launch market, increases in size of these satellites would require larger rocket boosters, hence increasing the value of their launching revenues.
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