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Leonids Meteor Shower Preview By Wil Milan Special to SPACE.com posted: 07:00 am ET 16 November 2000
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fire_in_sky_001115 On the night of November 17 astronomers and interested observers worldwide will watch the skies for one of the most spectacular events visible from Earth: A blazing deluge of fiery meteors known as a meteor storm.Showers and storms Mild meteor showers are common events, with more than a dozen occurring each year. At their peak most meteor showers result in one or two meteors per minute, interesting to watch but mostly unnoticed by non-astronomers. | Leonids 2000 Special Report | | The annual Leonid shower peaks early Friday and Saturday mornings. TheMoon will be bright, but some experts say observers still should be able to seeabout 100 shooting stars an hour on the morning of Nov. 17. |  For meteor shower forecasts, images, news, and more, CLICK HERE . | But on very rare occasions a normally mild meteor shower will suddenly turn into a fierce meteor storm, a fiery rain of dozens of meteors per minute -- more than 1000 per hour. One such display over the United States in November 1833 was so furious that many feared the sky was on fire and that it was the end of the world. It is that kind of display that may occur again this year on the night of November 17.The fickle Leonids The cause of this years possible meteor storm is Comet Tempel-Tuttle, a comet with an Earth-crossing orbit that returns every 33 years. Over the years Tempel-Tuttle has left behind a debris trail over the entire course of its orbit, and every year on November 17 Earth crosses through the debris trail, resulting in the normally mild Leonids meteor shower. [uplink] But every 33 years the comet and Earth pass near each other, and in those years the debris trail can be particularly heavy, resulting in a furious meteor storm. It was just such a Leonids meteor storm that terrified millions of people in 1833, and another heavy storm appeared right on schedule in 1866. But for some reason it failed to materialize in 1899 or 1933, and astronomers concluded that perhaps 1833 and 1866 were isolated events. 
Picture above is an illustration from an 1833 woodcut of the famous meteor storm of that year. Then in 1966 the Leonids storm was back in full force, putting on a furious display that at one point rained down at 40,000 meteors per hour, more than 10 per second. Fast forward to
2000? Following the 33-year rule, 1999 was expected to be the next peak year. And while the display did not match that of 1966, in parts of the Middle East observers did report a brief period of storm activity, leaving thousands of observers in awe of the dazzling sky display. But astronomers concluded that more was yet to come, and new astrophysical models have predicted a true meteor storm this year. Though competing predictions disagree on the time and place, several teams of astronomers who have modeled the comet debris trail do agree that sometime during the night of November 17 -- perhaps more than once, and in more than one place -- a blazing display will break out, lighting up the sky as few living humans have ever seen it. How to see the show The Leonids meteor shower and the meteor storm, if one develops -- will be visible the night of November 17 through the early hours of November 18. To see the event you need only one thing: dark skies. Bright urban skies make it impossible to see most meteors, so youll need to head out to the country where the skies are clear and dark. No equipment of any kind is required, and in fact telescopes and binoculars only hinder the view. Bring warm clothes, a comfortable chair, then sit back and enjoy the show -- but do be prepared to stay awake past midnight. There is usually little activity in the early evening, but after midnight (when the part of Earth where you are located is on the "front" of the planet as it orbits around the Sun) the activity will pick up and often accelerate as daybreak approaches. There is no guarantee that the mild meteor shower will turn into a blazing meteor storm. But if the predictive models hold true, observers in western Europe, the eastern U.S., and perhaps the central and western U.S. will be in for an exciting time. Even if the great meteor storm doesnt develop, some kind of meteor shower is guaranteed to occur, and that alone is worth the watching. Enjoy the show, and dont forget to bring the hot chocolate.
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