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A mounting stack of evidence suggests that asteroids and comets are the leading cause of terrestrial death, delivering immensely fatal blows every 100 million years or so that wipe the slate of life frighteningly close to clean in remarkably rapid fashion.


Computer simulation shows thousands of fragments generated when one asteroid slams into another. CREDIT: Science / Patrick Michel and Paolo Tanga


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By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
07 January 2002

The threat

Researchers estimate that there are about 1,000 NEOs larger than 1 kilometer, the minimum size considered capable of causing global devastation. Though no one knows for sure, such objects are suspected of hitting Earth every 100,000 to 300,000 years.

If one were found to be headed our way, experts say it's possible the rock could be deflected or destroyed by detonating nuclear explosives on or near it. The technology needed to mount such a mission has yet to be developed.

For now, nonetheless, the search is on.

NASA has a congressionally mandated goal to find 90 percent of these large NEOs by 2008. Roughly 500 have been found by various individuals and international research teams. But as more are discovered, those that remain become statistically harder to root out, and most astronomers don't expect NASA's goal to be met on time.

NASA also funds some of the research and follow-up observations needed to pin down the orbits of NEOs, a critical next-step in accessing any possible danger. But the agency -- one of the few that has the kind of budget needed for such work on large scales -- prefers to channel most of its money into space-based research rather than ground-based observations.

Just last month, NASA reduced funding of an NEO program at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico and announced intentions to shuttle the program over to the National Science Foundation. An NSF spokesman was surprised by the suggestion and said his agency had not had time to react to it.

Meanwhile, critics have long maintained that not enough is being done to find smaller NEOs, which could cause regional destruction if they hit Earth. Others worry that the cost and resources needed to find all these small space rocks, which number in the millions, is prohibitive, at least in the near term.

Other institutions inside and outside the United States contribute to the search and research of NEOs. The Minor Planet Center, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, serves as the clearinghouse for all data collected on space rocks.

The two new centers represent an increased internationalization of the effort, but it's not yet clear what role they will ultimately play.

More about Asteroids: Astronomy News by Topic

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