DAYTON, OHIO -- While great advances are expected in human space travel over the next 100 years, it is how researchers, engineers and the aerospace industry responds now in the wake of the Columbia tragedy that will set the pace and direction of how far and how fast progress will be made in the near-term.
This is the undertone running through The Next 100 Years, an International Air & Space Symposium and Exposition being held here this week and organized by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).
The program is a salute to the Wright Brothers seminal flight in 1903 and a look at the evolution of flight to today and a prospective look into the future, however hall-talk here at the symposium suggests that Americas human space program is in serious trouble.
The foundation of what a 21st century space program should represent has been shaken by the Columbia incident, the ongoing revelations about a troubled NASA culture, industry-contractor relationships, the grounding of the remaining shuttle fleet, and an unfinished International Space Station.
Building blocks
"Theres now a philosophical argument about what we want the next generation space vehicles to look like," said Robert Walker, a former Pennsylvania Republican lawmaker who served in Congress for 20 years, much of it dealing with space program issues.
"Its very difficult to look out a 100 years. But what we do know is that the building blocks that you put in place now will impact what you do in a 100 years," he said.
Walker chaired the recent Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry, and took part in an opening session on visions of the future.
Walker underscored the evolution of Chinas human spaceflight program likely to launch its first piloted space mission this year. That stepping stone flight can place China on a pathway for near-term human exploration of the Moon, he said.
In an interview with SPACE.com, Walker said that NASA -- as well as the U.S. Congress -- face a set of tough-to-tackle issues.
Level of risk
Walker said the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) has proven very useful in looking at NASAs practices, to see whether or not there can be improvements.
"If you go to the whole fundamental issue of whether or not NASA has appropriately addressed safety you get down to the question of, basically, what level of risk are you willing to accept. Thats been an evolving thing at NASA and will continue to evolve."
Walker said that by operating in the hostile environment of space, risk is always going to be an issue. "And NASA needs to make a cultural decision about just how much risk is acceptable inside the program," he said.
A matter of money
Making a trajectory change in NASAs culture also falls upon the U.S. Congress.
"I think part of the oversight role of Congress is to be constantly evaluating these things and constantly looking at whether or not NASA is doing the right things," Walker said.
Ultimately, however, Congress must provide the resources necessary to correct NASA problems, many of them to be discussed front and center by the soon-to-be-released CAIB report.
"Its not good enough for Congress to simply say you are doing it wrong. Congress then has to come up with the resources to do it right," Walker said.
"And that will be the real issue. Whether or not Congress is willing to spend additional money in order to get additional changes in management. That has not always been clear in recent years," Walker said.
Orbital space plane: a step backward?
NASA and industry contracting teams are in the midst of fleshing out the Orbital Space Plane (OSP). This vehicle would enable crews to travel to and from the International Space Station, but haul along little in the way of cargo.
The OSP needs to be a precursor for something more in the future, Walker cautioned, "not a total step backward."
Walker said the OSP can become the second stage of a fully reusable space vehicle. He said that he has no problem in having the OSP being launched in the interim via Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELV) -- the Atlas 5 or the Delta 4 boosters.
"But I do have a problem if what we decide to do is put a capsule on top of an EELV and go back to landing in the water," Walker said. That approach would eat up considerable development dollars and yield a design not applicable to a far more robust two-stage-to-orbit vehicle, he said.
Visionary glasses
Walker remains optimistic about the future and see one day a kind of air traffic management system that handles both air and space vehicles within the same environment. Furthermore, piloted as well as unpiloted craft will share the friendly skies together, he said.
"If you look out a 100 years, you are certain to get new kinds of propulsion systems. So you lay the building blocks for propulsion, both air-breathing propulsion and space propulsion," Walker said.
Walker suggested keeping an eye on the upcoming launch of Gravity Probe B. While a pure science mission, that spacecraft may well shed light on the basic workings of gravity itself.
"But it could be, it just could be, that what we will learn from Gravity Probe B will be how to manage gravity," Walker said. "Im not certain that the anti-gravity is there, although some scientists will tell you that. But I do believe that managing gravity might be a possibility. Gravity Probe B is going to give us perhaps our first hints at whether or not thats a possibility," Walker said.
If controlling such a force becomes feasible, then what?
"If in fact you end up learning how to manage gravity, the ability to do remarkable things in the next century will be almost beyond the imagination," Walker said. "Then the next 100 years become really spectacular," he predicted.
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