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Space Tourism: Far-Out Fantasy, Or Close to Reality?
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
16 October 2000
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"To me, it doesn't seem a stretch of the imagination to think that we're going to get there. Market studies, how many will travel and at what cost… everything I see and read about space tourism says this has to be a go," said ISU President, Karl Doetsch.
What's still missing, Doetsch told SPACE.com, is the plunking down of major cash to create and take advantage of a blossoming space tourism industry. But given the investment capacity of the private sector, the magnitude of monies needed is no longer laughable, he said.
To what extent should governments help foster public space transit?
"They haven't yet come to grips with the question of how much they should stimulate something that, ultimately, will be a truly commercial venture," Doetsch said.
Will our grandchildren go rock climbing in Valles Marineris?
Doetsch believes setting up a booming space tourism business will take some 10 to 15 years. "It's probably going to require on the order of $10 billion to $15 billion to really move into what I call space tourism on a large scale," he said.
"It's possible that there will be a million passengers going into space, say before 50 years pass," Doetsch said.
The big holdup, Doetsch added, is who has deep enough pockets filled with cash and the long-term will to make space tourism a profitable enterprise. He agreed that, even in space, you can hear company stockholders scream.
Fall in to the gap
For space tourism, there is no free ride.
The ISU study group flagged the gap between the current cost of launches and the cost needed to make space tourism a self-sustaining market. If space tourism is to be, that gap must be closed, the report stated.
It continued, "Today's launch technology is inefficient and complex to operate, and thus very expensive. The current commercial market for launchers is too small to promote the development of new technology."
Governments and space agencies, the report noted, should invest in the research and development of reusable, safe and low-cost launch vehicles. Private investors will also play a key role in making space tourism a robust industry.
Other key findings of the ISU study:
- Space tourism activities will have to deal with a complex legal framework. No specific
international space law has yet been defined for space tourism. The International Space Station will serve as a first testing ground for laws that could later be adapted for the space-tourism market.
The next step in the evolutionary process of the space tourism industry will be suborbital flights. High-altitude balloon flights carrying passengers could help generate public interest in suborbital and orbital jaunts.
Space Motion Sickness (SMS) -- an illness that hits many space travelers today -- is a concern for orbital flight passengers. SMS drugs are key to ensuring customer satisfaction.
Space tourism can provide the necessary launch volume to achieve cheap access to space. Governments should help finance the development of new launch vehicles and create a good legal framework for the industry.
Something in the air
Angie Bukley, an airborne laser expert for The Aerospace Corporation at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, co-chaired the ISU study.
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