WASHINGTON -- The promise of microgravity science carried out on the International Space Station (ISS) anytime soon is highly doubtful given program cost overruns and subsequent budget cuts, according to a new report.
Given the prospect that schedule slips and scientific equipment delays continue to plague the mega-project, NASAs ability to achieve stated scientific goals ISS is "seriously jeopardized," the report states.
The assessment, "Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Space Station," is still in pre-publication form and was written by 13 members of the National Research Council's Task Group on Research on the International Space Station.
Former NASA astronaut James Bagian, a veteran space flyer with more than 15 years experience, led the effort. He is now director of the Veterans Health Administrations National Center for Patient Safety in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The high-tech turmoil swirling around the ISS spurred Congress late last year to direct the National Research Council (NRC) here, as well as the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA), to delve into these concerns.
Rescoping the ISS
Begun in the late 1980s, the ISS project has been fraught with changes in schedule and cost for a decade. This has forced reevaluation of the number, scale and timeliness of major hardware to be built and then outfitted on the ISS. Also, critical resources such as crew time and power needed to support ISS science research is under question.
Earlier this year, large cost overruns in constructing the orbital outpost prompted the White House and NASA to propose major changes to the program.
Part of this ISS "rescoping" would drop the total ISS crew capacity from six or seven to a trio of operating personnel -- as the station is flown today. Moreover, canceling or delaying indefinitely a number of major ISS research facilities is under discussion. Also, a major Solar Array Wing, to help energize science studies on ISS, may be left back on Earth.
NASA estimates that at least 2.5 crewmembers are required to maintain and operate the ISS -- and thats exclusive of putting mind and muscle behind science duties.
Reducing the ISS capabilities would be a "crippling blow" to fulfilling the NASA stated goal of creating a world class laboratory in space, the report concluded.
Severely impaired
The potential downgrading of the ISS research abilities, coupled to smaller crew size, onboard
facilities, and power "have caused great concern in the scientific community," the report states. In the task groups view "the future of science on the ISS would be severely impaired" if proposed changes to the outpost are carried out.
The two key conclusions drawn by the NRC study group were:
- The U.S. scientific community is ready now to use the ISS;
- This readiness, however, cannot be sustained if proposed reductions in the scientific capabilities of the ISS occur, or slippage continues in the development and science utilization schedules for ISS as currently proposed, or uncertainties continue in funding for science facilities and flight experiments on ISS.
Annual shuttle flights
In the event that ISS capabilities are sharply reduced, thus making its scientific utility questionable, the Task Force urged annual shuttle flights devoted to on-orbit research to make up for the scientific shortfall. These yearly flights would continue until the ISS reaches a level of capability to pursue credible science -- to be determined by an independent body of scientists that reflect the interests of the ISS user community, the Task Force said.
The group cautioned that, "if ISS development were to be the funding source for additional microgravity shuttle flights, then no additional shuttle flights should be planned for microgravity research."
At present, there is a sizeable group of selected flight experiments in all disciplines ready to take advantage of the ISS and its promised onboard equipment.
"There was general agreement across disciplines that there are fundamental scientific insights to be gained by doing these experiments in prolonged microgravity environment on the ISS," the panel of experts found.
But without stable and adequate funding to hold onto senior and younger scientists wishing to conduct ISS experiments, "they will abandon NASA for other research opportunities," the report cautions.
If this occurs, the ISS "will have little or no scientific future or value," the Task Force observes.
Adding pain to misery
For its part, the findings of a NAPA study team, added as an appendix to the NRC Task Group findings, only add more pain to misery.
One thing is clear, added NAPA: "The erosion of the microgravity research community has begun. It will accelerate if flight opportunities and research capabilities wane. Action is required if the nation is to maintain a strong, viable, world-class, microgravity space-based community."
Both the NRC Task Force and the NAPA team agreed on a key point. If ISS science operations continue to slip, adding shuttle flights "may well be the only opportunity for research in a microgravity environment for the better part of this decade."
Adding shuttle flights could have a negative impact on ISS assembly, the report admits. However, if microgravity research community unravels in upcoming years, "it is entirely possible that when the ISS is finally ready, the ability to conduct world-class research will not be there."