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Before and After: Satellite Photos of Turkey's Quake Zone
Satellite Captures Images of Devastating Refinery Fire in Turkey
Satellites May Help Predict Turkey's Next Earthquake
By Kenneth Silber
Staff Writer
posted: 07:09 am ET
31 August 1999

earthquake_gps

Turkey's devastating earthquake on August 17 came as the country was beginning to deploy a network of satellite ground stations to monitor -- and possibly predict -- earthquake activity.

Using signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, the stations will detect tiny movements along Turkey's 1,000-mile-long Anatolian fault. The $2 million project is a joint effort of Turkish governmental and research organizations and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

The organizations installed one GPS receiver several months ago, and are planning a network of 15 or more stations throughout the country. "If one has a number of these receivers, and we repeat the measurements, any movement will be measured," says Nafi Toksoz, a Turkish-born geophysicist at MIT and the university's team leader on the project.

The southern side of the Anatolian fault line moves by roughly an inch a year, while the northern side stays still. The result is a "deformation," in which pressure gets built up along the fault. "It we sense any change in the rate of deformation, it will be an indication that something is happening -- and could be a precursor to an earthquake," says Toksoz.

Networks of GPS receivers have been installed along fault lines in Japan and California in recent years. Whether such monitoring will enable accurate quake predictions, or just measurements of quakes as they occur, remains to be seen.

Toksoz says that he is "hopeful that there will be some changes in the rate of deformation prior to an earthquake. I am optimistic that we will see something. On the other hand, this is a new research area, and until it is tested and proven, we really cannot make any statement about how well it will work."

In addition to MIT, the organizations participating in the project are the Gebza Institute of the Turkish National Science Foundation, the Turkish General Command of Mapping, the Kandilli Observatory of Bosphorus University, and Istanbul Technical University.

 

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