WASHINGTON -- The first launch of Chinese astronauts won't likely take place until next spring, a noted expert on the Chinese space program told space.com recently. Charles P. Vick of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, DC and a published author and analyst said a launch in October is unlikely. Some observers have suggested October as the possible date of a first Chinese manned space flight.

"It would be very foolish indeed to launch then," Vick said from his Alexandria, Va. home. Vick said intelligence sources have told him that photos of a possible Chinese manned space vehicle published on several Internet sites is not of a flight-rated craft. "I've been told that it is a facilities test vehicle that was placed on the pad in May of 1998," he explained. "It is utterly unrealistic for it to have been a manned, flight-rated vehicle." The location of the pictures and of the expected manned flight is China's East Wind Launch Site.

Vick said he has learned that China had planned a manned flight in late 1997 but was forced to delay because of a lack of flight test experience with the prototype craft. He noted that, according to his Pentagon sources, the U.S. military has not detected a test launch of a Chinese CSS-4 ballistic missile carrying a model of the Chinese space capsule. Still, a past test cant be ruled out,Vick said. The CSS-4 is the expected test vehicle for launching models of the space capsule for suborbital tests of its systems and heat shielding.

The technology and designs for the spacecraft and the modified Long March 2F space booster that will lift the capsule into orbit were obtained from Russia through a series Sino-Russian agreements monitored by Vick's group. "But they have not bought actual hardware from Russia, except for life support systems," he said.

No flight tests into Earth orbit of the assembled capsule and support modules have been detected either, Vick said, adding that such tests are essential to the safety of the crew. He said that at least two test flights are likely before the Chinese commit humans to the spacecraft and launcher.

Charles Vick is a widely published author on the Soviet and Russian space programs. His drawings of rockets and military satellites have been used by Congressional Committees and the U.S. government to identify features of the vehicles not usually known in the west.