High volume
Here in the United States, the RLV debate is centered on spacecraft breeds and build timelines.
The recent cancellation of the NASA-Lockheed Martin X-33 project to harness single-stage-to-orbit technology was a step backward, said Bob Haltermann, executive director of STA's Space Travel and Tourism Division.
"NASA spent $1 billion dollars and Lockheed Martin spent $400 million ... and NASA just dropped it. That's tragic. If you're thinking about greatly reducing launch costs, you're never going to get there by not taking greater risks to make greater advances," Haltermann said.
On the other hand, Apollo 11 moonwalker, Buzz Aldrin, waved a cautionary flag about those who now tout a single-stage-to-orbit approach to lofting paying passengers spaceward. "I'm afraid we might be misstating that it's just right around the corner," he said.
Rather, a two-stage-to-orbit can be done with today's technology, Aldrin said. Tens of thousands of passengers per year can be envisioned booking flights in future years. "Only the high volumes of passenger space travel can break the cost barrier holding back our expansion into the solar system," Aldrin reported to the conference.
of prospective space travelers. Taking a "build it and hopefully they'll come" approach is not a sound business tactic for attracting investors in any space tourism industry.
Clearly, the cheaper the seat, the longer the line.
How much money are people willing to spend for voyaging into the vacuum void?
"There's a great deal we don't know," said Geoffrey Crouch, chair of tourism marketing at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia. "Strong, quality market research is vital," he said.
If given the chance, whether individuals will act on their stated desires to fly into space remains iffy without solid data from market research, Crouch said.
"Recreational space travel" is an appealing market, said Robert Davis, president of Kelly Space and Technology, Inc. But take away windows and microgravity, forget anybody putting down their money, he said.
"The notion of looking out the window and gazing at the Earth has the marketable appeal to a lot of people," Davis said. He too underscores the need for better characterization of the market.
Reversal of thought
Kelly Space and Technology recently completed a NASA-sponsored survey of future space markets. "We found that the most easily quantifiable market that we could really touch, smell, understand and model was private space travel for everyday citizens," Davis told SPACE.com.
Moreover, Davis said, robust space tourism could signal a reversal in thinking. Right now, carrying out research and development in space is prohibitively expensive. High flight rates of vehicles to push cash-in-hand passengers into Earth orbit means the price per flight will drop.
"Then we will begin to see people who will do research and development in a variety of different fields that we probably can't even articulate today," Davis said.
"That's a reversal of thought," he said. "We used to think tourism would follow. Now we think that tourism will lead, bringing down the cost for those who want to get into space for research and development purposes."
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