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Mir"s Death Will Be Off Radar
By Interfax

posted: 02:50 pm ET
22 March 2001

MOSCOW (Interfax) - Mir will disappear from all global radar systems 40 minutes before its splashdown, mission control director, Vladimir Lobachev, said Thursday

MOSCOW (Interfax) -- Mir will disappear from all global radar systems 40 minutes before its splashdown, Mission Control director, Vladimir Lobachev, said Thursday.

Russia's Korolev Mission Control Center, near Moscow, has begun the irreversible process to deorbit the Mir space station, the pride of first Soviet, then Russian aerospace for over 15 years.

During its last minutes of life, Mir should descend to the splashdown area and experts hope that everything will go as planned.

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"After the engines are switched off at a height of 158 kilometers (98 miles), we will not be able to observe Mir for 40 minutes, because it will not come up on our radar," Lobachev told Interfax. "America's Mission Control in Houston will not be able to see it either, nor will the European Space Agency."

The Americans have radar on the Fiji Islands, but its visibility zone is just 2 degrees and it can spot objects that follow almost along the horizontal, he said. So nobody will see Mir's last minutes. Possibly tourists on commercial flights will get lucky, but this is unlikely because the area where it will splashdown is too large, he noted.

After the engines are switched off, Mission Control will give a last forecast of where the pieces of the station will fall and inform all states through their embassies in Russia.

There will be 61 representatives from different embassies at Mission Control who plan to observe the process and immediately warn their states if there are any changes from previous forecasts, Lobachev said.

On March 23 at 1:30 a.m. EST (06:30 GMT; 9:30 a.m. Moscow time), those pieces of the station that do not burn up will sink into the Pacific Ocean. Those pieces of the station that do not burn up will splash into a stretch of Pacific Ocean between Australia and South America -- an elliptical zone 3,730 miles (6,000 kilometers) long and 125 miles (200 kilometers) wide, centered at 44.2 degrees south, 150.4 degrees west.

Insurance risk unlikely

There are no islands or navigation routes in the zone, which is an area traditionally used by Russia and other countries for dumping unwanted spacecraft.

Insurance companies think it is unlikely that any serious claims will be made with regard the crash of the Mir space station. Of course it is impossible to completely exclude the possibility of insurance claims, deputy general director of Megaruss and secretary of the Association of Aerospace Insurers, Igor Yermolov, told Interfax.

"We are ready for the fact that claims may be made," he said, but added that "the likelihood that residents of the Pacific Ocean region will suffer any significant losses is very small."

"There may be attempts at speculation, with the aim of attracting attention and taking advantage of insurance companies. Attempts at fraud and speculative talk is possible," he said, commenting on media reports that the Kingdom of Tonga is waiting for pieces of Mir to fall on its territory in order to ask Russia for considerable compensation.

"Compensation will be given for specific and real damage covered by insurance," Yermolov said. "The technical process of crashing Mir has been developed to lower the chance of causing damage to third parties to a minimum."

Megaruss-D, part of the Megaruss insurance company, accounts for 40 percent of the risks in insuring civil liability before third parties for losses suffered in the crash of the Mir. Industrial Insurance Company (PSK) accounts for another 40 percent and AVIKOS accounts for 20 percent.

The insurance sum totals $200 million, in accordance with an international convention dated March 29, 1972, and has been reinsured on the Russian and international insurance markets.

Experts from the Lloyd's corporation say that the splashdown of Mir carries unique risks for insurers if something unforeseen should occur.

The main insurance risks involve possible deviations from the planned descent trajectory if communications with land services are interrupted. Other risks include Mir crashing into planes or ships. There is also the risk of pieces landing on land and causing damage.

 

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