The Proton rocket failure in Kazakhstan on October 27 leaves the space industry facing delayed launch schedules and limited options for placing relatively heavy payloads into orbit.
The incident "could mean a standdown of anywhere from one month to six months" in Proton launches from Kazakhstan, predicts Clayton Lowry, executive director of the Virginia-based Satellite Industry Association.
Following the failure, Kazakhstan suspended all launches from its Baikonur Cosmodrome. However, it is uncertain whether the suspension will remain comprehensive, or if it will be narrowed to Proton launches.
Following a July Proton accident, Kazakh officials announced a broad suspension but then limited it to Protons, which were not allowed to launch until September.
International Launch Services (ILS), the U.S.-Russian joint venture that markets Proton launches, announced its own suspension of Proton launches pending investigation of the latest failure by a Russian government panel.
Launch failures "sometimes mean that satellites jump from one vehicle another," says Lowry. However, he points out, some possible alternatives to the Proton -- such as Ariane 5 or Sea Launch -- are just now becoming available.
Marco Caceres, a space analyst at the Teal Group consulting firm, says the incident "could be a positive development for Arianespace. Proton is the one vehicle that's been taking business away from them." However, he adds, "Arianespace can only launch a certain number of satellites a year," and has had its own delays.
There are impediments to using other launch systems as well, notes Caceres. The Japanese H-3 rocket "is way too expensive" for many customers, he says, and Delta and Atlas rockets have lower payload capacities than Protons. He also notes the political and other uncertainties involved in launches using China's Long March rockets.
Sea Launch spokesman Terrance Scott, told space.com the Boeing-led consortium has no plans to alter its launch activities in response to the Proton failure. "Our schedule is pretty much set going into next year," he said.
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