WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Boeing's plan to boost the commercial space industry's perception of its beleaguered Delta 3 rocket by launching a mock payload is a good idea and should help soothe frazzled nerves, industry analysts said Wednesday.
 The second Delta 3 sits on its launch pad before a May 1999 mission that ended with the Orion 3 satellite in the wrong orbit.
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"It's a good idea and should have been done in the first place," said analyst Robert Kaimowitz with ING Barings in New York.
"If confidence has been lost, it's probably worth it," said analyst Bill Pitkin of Merrill Lynch in New York.
"It's important for demonstrating the reliability of the vehicle," said Clayton Mowry of the Satellite Industry Association. The group represents some of the industry's top commercial satellite firms, including Lockheed and Boeing.
The Delta 3's inaugural launch failed in 1998, destroying a Galaxy 10 communications satellite for its customer PanAmSat. The next year, an engine combustion failure destroyed an Orion 3 satellite that was going to be used by Loral Space & Communications.
The booster, developed by McDonnell Douglas before its 1997 merger with Boeing, uses a Pratt & Whitney engine on its upper stage. The same engine is used on the upper stage of Boeing's next-generation rocket, the Delta 4. The booster is Boeing's new generation of government-backed, reduced-cost expendable rockets.
It's important that Delta 3 be successful before Boeing moves on to Delta 4, said Paul Nisbet of JSA Research in Providence, Rhode Island.
"The Delta 4 will be the major vehicle for the future," he said. "That's why it's important that there be confidence in the next vehicle," he said.
Most analysts agree that the mock payload will help with the rocket's image problem and pave the way for the Delta 4, but say that one launch will not necessarily cure what ails the booster.
"One dummy launch will not solve the problem," Pitkin at Merrill Lynch said.. "In some ways it's an admittance that you have a problem, but that you can demonstrate that you can perform."
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Boeing Gambles on Delta 3
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Learn more about Boeing's decision to launch their next Delta 3 rocket without a paying customer in this update from the Cape Canaveral launch site.
Click here!
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"That's an expensive demonstration," Nisbet said.
Boeing officials say the price tag for the launch is about $85 million.
But some defend the cost of the launch.
"With every launch you get a wealth of telemetry data," SIA's Mowry said.
Boeing is anxious to keep the Delta 3 a viable launch vehicle in the marketplace as it plans for the debut of its Delta 4 in the spring or summer of 2001.
Delta 3's success is key to Boeing's goal of establishing itself not only as a major player in the space business but as the world's top launch-services provider.
California-based Boeing plans a series of at least five versions of Delta 4, including a heavy-lift version that could become the world's most powerful launchers.
These rockets will likely launch military and commercial satellites into orbit over the next 20 years from Cape Canaveral in Florida and from Vandenberg AFB in California
Boeing is reported to have already signed up at least 30 commercial launches. The Air Force has also ordered about 19 launches between 2002 and 2006.
Boeing got back into the launch business in 1997 when it acquired McDonnell Douglas.
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