Space flight's next chapter is anyone's guess. Will there be a large privately-owned fleet of a single, revolutionary craft? Or will launch vehicles be more like cars, with plenty of brands and models to choose from?
NASA is looking to spend $1.2 billion over the next five years to find an answer to that question.
The space agency is gathering the suggestions of the private sector, and putting together a report that will influence which technologies receive NASA funding.
And while the privatization of the space industry has brought on a less central role for NASA, that money could nevertheless quench the thirst for capital of the many start-up launch vehicle companies.
"This is not a game for the faint hearted," says Geoffrey Hughes, a vice president of Rotary Rocket, whose cone-shaped rocket prototype will soon undergo a second round of tests. "Any amount of money we have in the bank we spend."
In mid-August, NASA finished allocating $22 million to fund companies to develop their recommendations.
The suggestions will be presented to the Office of Management and Budget on October 1, and will influence the way NASA allocates the $1.2 billion it plans to spend over the next five years on research and technology for the next generation of space flight.
The prime directive is safety. NASA's chief, Dan Goldin, aims to bring the safety factor for flight crews to 99.99 percent, or one incident in 10,000 flights. That's a tough order for the private sector, NASA says.
Cost, too, is a major factor. NASA wants to bring down the cost of sending up a payload by 90 percent -- from $10,000 per pound, as it is on the shuttle, to $1000 per pound.
The space agency also wants companies to keep in mind a goal that profit-seeking companies may ignore: putting humans in space. Sending up piloted missions is a major goal of NASA, even though those missions do not currently offer the financial rewards of non-piloted launches.
Another goal of the space agency is to develop technology that will help supply the space station for at least another 12 years.
In March, NASA completed the first round of its study, called the Space Transportation Architecture study. Its participants -- including Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Orbital Sciences, Space Access, and Kelly Space & Technology -- each pitched their own products and services.
Those firms have now been asked to divvy up their awards to smaller firms as they develop their second round proposals.
And while the new reports are being put together, NASA is making its first conclusion: next-generation technology that fits NASA's safety and cost standards is many years away.
"NASA's requirements for safety and reliability and cost of launch are true challenges for industry," says Dan Mulville, NASA Chief Engineer. "Frankly, there's a long way to go in any of these developments."
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