It is important to remember that the cloud of Temple-Tuttle debris that the Earth encounters is densest at the portion through which we pass every 33 years; that would suggest the greatest numbers of meteors would occur at the cyclic 1998-1999 interval. But remember, if you want to bet, the experts suggest the horse race every time!

The predictions for a good show of the Leonids pretty much "fizzled" for the expected pass in 1998-99. Thousands of professional and amateur astronomers around the world were waiting with lens caps removed, special wide field cameras and video equipment. and even specialized instruments that could measure temperatures, velocities and even chemical elements that might be present in the vaporizing trails of the meteors.

For 2001, the prognosticators are all pretty much in agreement for a very fine, if not spectacular, Leonid meteor shower for North America (particularly west of the Mississippi River), the Pacific islands and an even more splendid showing for easternmost Asia and Australia/New Zealand.

An unusual aspect of this meteor shower is that the Earth will receive a "double punch" as it hits not one, but TWO, pockets of very dense interplanetary debris. The first hit (Phase One) will be the ideal observing scenario for North America and occurs a full eight hours ahead of the larger Phase Two, which will peak in dark skies over Japan, the Philippines, eastern China and the Australia-New Zealand area.

In addition, this year's event will be one of the most "observable" on record, since --like the storm of 1833 -- the light of the moon will be ABSENT from the sky at the time of the meteors' peak.

Here are the target dates, times and possible numbers of meteors as provided by professional astronomers, notably from Sky & Telescope magazine, SpaceRef.com www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?ppid=6085), SpaceDaily (www.spacedaily.com/news/leonid-01a.html) and the Astronomical Society of Australia (www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/info_sheets/leonids.html):

Phase One: In the earliest pre-dawn skies of November 18 for most of North America the Earth will be going through the maximum concentration of cometary dust around 5:00 a.m. EST. However, darkness will prevail longer the farther west that observers are located on this continent, so many observers are planning excursions to the clear and crisp mountain skies of the western United States.

For North America the maximum number of meteors -- perhaps as many as 2,500 per hour -- will be seen further into pre-dawn hours as one moves west. It will be an hour earlier -- 4:00 a.m. CST -- when the Earth passes through the dense comet cloud in central states, 3:00 a.m. MST in the Colorado Rockies, 2:00 a.m. on the West Coast and much earlier for the mid-Pacific islands.

Phase One will be a very rapid-fire brief burst of meteor activity; as mentioned, the Leonids are among the fastest meteors known, and they will be intersecting the Earth nearly head-on into its orbit. Thus, most meteors seen will flash rapidly across the sky and NOT linger. The meteors are typically faint (compared to the lumbering and bright Perseid meteors of August) and yellow-to-white colored. Look for the greatest activity to suddenly surge about one hour ahead of the times given above, and last only two hours total at best.

Phase Two: Because observers in Japan, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand are "on the other side" of the International Date Line, the western Pacific rim is much favored for the "second punch" of the meteors against the Earth's atmosphere. This impact with yet another dense cloud following Comet Temple-Tuttle will occur a full eight hours later than that seen in North America, or in pre-dawn skies of November 19.

Estimates range upwards to many thousands of Leonids visible beginning at about 3:30 a.m. November 19 in eastern Australia and New Zealand. The same display might be seen at about 2:30 a.m. local time in Japan and as early as 1:30 a.m. in the Philippines and western Australia.

For observers in this Phase Two zone, this display is predicted to be the finest meteor shower since the Leonids of 1866.

So now we know what we "might" expect. Are YOU ready? Do you have all the tools and equipment you need to adequately observe what may well be THE meteor shower of your lifetime? You may surprised at how pleasantly simple the actual "task" of observing such a spectacular celestial splendor can be. Our next installment, "Preparing yourself for the Millennium Meteors!" will have you ready and set to go by November 17-18-19.